Quantifying the Uncertainty of Return Period and Risk in Hydrologic Design: Fid-Bau Portal

Fachinformationsdienst BAUdigital

Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Return Period and Risk in Hydrologic Design

Salas, Jose D. / Heo, Jun H. / Lee, Dong J. / Burlando, Paolo

Concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly used for designing and evaluating flood-related hydraulic structures. A general framework for estimating the uncertainty of the return period and risk is presented based on first-order analysis of uncertainty for determining the variance of the return period and risk of failure and the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood. The general method is illustrated using the exponential and Gumbel distributions. The derived variance of the return period is a function of the sample size $N$ and the nonexceedance probability $q$ , while that of the risk is function of $N$ , $q$ , and design life $n$ . Simulation experiments were performed to analyze the behavior of the variance of risk for various values of $N$ , $q$ , and $n$ . They showed that the derived variances of the risk can be applicable for a wide range of conditions, particularly for sample sizes bigger than 50 and design lives smaller or equal to 50. An example is included to illustrate the applicability of the proposed concepts and equations.

Zugriff

Zugriff prüfen

Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

Bestellung bei Subito €

Seitennavigation

Dokumentinformationen

Ähnliche Titel

Exportieren, teilen und zitieren

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Return Period and Risk in Hydrologic Design

Salas, Jose D. / Heo, Jun H. / Lee, Dong J. / Burlando, Paolo

Concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly used for designing and evaluating flood-related hydraulic structures. A general framework for estimating the uncertainty of the return period and risk is presented based on first-order analysis of uncertainty for determining the variance of the return period and risk of failure and the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood. The general method is illustrated using the exponential and Gumbel distributions. The derived variance of the return period is a function of the sample size $N$ and the nonexceedance probability $q$ , while that of the risk is function of $N$ , $q$ , and design life $n$ . Simulation experiments were performed to analyze the behavior of the variance of risk for various values of $N$ , $q$ , and $n$ . They showed that the derived variances of the risk can be applicable for a wide range of conditions, particularly for sample sizes bigger than 50 and design lives smaller or equal to 50. An example is included to illustrate the applicability of the proposed concepts and equations.

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Return Period and Risk in Hydrologic Design

Salas, Jose D. / Heo, Jun H. / Lee, Dong J. / Burlando, Paolo

Concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly used for designing and evaluating flood-related hydraulic structures. A general framework for estimating the uncertainty of the return period and risk is presented based on first-order analysis of uncertainty for determining the variance of the return period and risk of failure and the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood. The general method is illustrated using the exponential and Gumbel distributions. The derived variance of the return period is a function of the sample size $N$ and the nonexceedance probability $q$ , while that of the risk is function of $N$ , $q$ , and design life $n$ . Simulation experiments were performed to analyze the behavior of the variance of risk for various values of $N$ , $q$ , and $n$ . They showed that the derived variances of the risk can be applicable for a wide range of conditions, particularly for sample sizes bigger than 50 and design lives smaller or equal to 50. An example is included to illustrate the applicability of the proposed concepts and equations.

Zugriff

Zugriff prüfen

Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

Bestellung bei Subito €

Seitennavigation

Dokumentinformationen

Ähnliche Titel

Exportieren, teilen und zitieren

Dokumentinformationen

Titel:

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Return Period and Risk in Hydrologic Design

Beteiligte:

Salas, Jose D. (Autor:in) / Heo, Jun H. (Autor:in) / Lee, Dong J. (Autor:in) / Burlando, Paolo (Autor:in)

Erschienen in:

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering ; 18 ; 518-526

Erscheinungsdatum:

17.03.2012

Format / Umfang:

92013-01-01 pages

ISSN:

1084-0699 , 1943-5584

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000613

Medientyp:

Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)

Format:

Elektronische Ressource

Sprache:

Englisch

Ähnliche Titel

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Return Period and Risk in Hydrologic Design

Salas, Jose D. | Online Contents | 2013

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Return Period and Risk in Hydrologic Design

Salas, J.D. / Heo, J.H. / Lee, D.J. et al. | British Library Online Contents | 2013

Return Period and Risk of Hydrologic Events. II: Applications

Fernandez, B. / Salas, J. D. | British Library Online Contents | 1999

Return Period and Risk for Nonstationary Hydrologic Extreme Events

Salas, J.D. / Obeysekera, J. / American Society of Civil Engineers | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2013

Return Period and Risk of Hydrologic Events. I: Mathematical Formulation

Fernandez, B. / Salas, J. D. | British Library Online Contents | 1999