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A Cell-based Reliability Analysis Model for Predicting Regional Rainfall-induced Slope Failures
Rainfall-induced slope failures are one of the most common types of hazards in hilly terrains. This paper presents a method that adopts a distributed cell-based model for predicting rainfall-induced slope failures in a large area. The model consists of four components; namely, a digital terrain model, a spatial rainfall distribution model, a rainfall infiltration analysis model, and a slope reliability analysis model. The digital terrain is discretized into a grid first, with the properties of the soils in each cell assigned. Universal Kriging is adopted to estimate the real-time hourly rainfall intensity for each cell. The rainfall infiltration analysis model gives the groundwater level and pore-water pressure head in the ground based on the terrain model and the obtained rainfall information. The probability of failure for each cell is then calculated based on the distribution of the factor of safety for the cell. The method predicts locations of rainfall-induced slope failures reasonably well. The occurrence time can also be predicted to a certain extent. The presented method shows promise for use in a real-time warning system for rainfall-induced slope failures.
A Cell-based Reliability Analysis Model for Predicting Regional Rainfall-induced Slope Failures
Rainfall-induced slope failures are one of the most common types of hazards in hilly terrains. This paper presents a method that adopts a distributed cell-based model for predicting rainfall-induced slope failures in a large area. The model consists of four components; namely, a digital terrain model, a spatial rainfall distribution model, a rainfall infiltration analysis model, and a slope reliability analysis model. The digital terrain is discretized into a grid first, with the properties of the soils in each cell assigned. Universal Kriging is adopted to estimate the real-time hourly rainfall intensity for each cell. The rainfall infiltration analysis model gives the groundwater level and pore-water pressure head in the ground based on the terrain model and the obtained rainfall information. The probability of failure for each cell is then calculated based on the distribution of the factor of safety for the cell. The method predicts locations of rainfall-induced slope failures reasonably well. The occurrence time can also be predicted to a certain extent. The presented method shows promise for use in a real-time warning system for rainfall-induced slope failures.
A Cell-based Reliability Analysis Model for Predicting Regional Rainfall-induced Slope Failures
Chen, Hongxin (Autor:in) / Zhang, Limin (Autor:in)
Geo-Congress 2013 ; 2013 ; San Diego, California, United States
Geo-Congress 2013 ; 982-990
25.02.2013
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
A Cell-Based Reliability Analysis Model for Predicting Regional Rainfall-Induced Slope Failures
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