Sustainability Quantification and Valuation. II: Probabilistic Framework and Metrics for Sustainable Construction: Fid-Bau Portal

Sustainability Quantification and Valuation. II: Probabilistic Framework and Metrics for Sustainable Construction

Webb, David / Ayyub, Bilal M.

This paper presents basic examples and a comprehensive example implementing a methodology for quantifying sustainability within a risk framework that includes economic valuations. Two basic examples are introduced with numeric values and probability distributions selected to facilitate understanding the procedure and to verify results. A comprehensive example of a hypothetical building is then presented. The building utilized in the comprehensive example assumes average values for indicator levels obtained from various sources as reported in the literature. Values were assumed in cases of nonexistent average values in the literature. The examples cover the key aspects of the methodology, starting with the process of defining indicators to analyzing results. Comparisons using hypothetical alternatives to enhance sustainability are provided to illustrate practical applications of the methodology. The paper also provides a stepwise methodology that is applicable even in highly complex analysis and has the potential to produce results with more intuitive and interpretable meanings than existing sustainability metrics. Using Dempster-Shafer structures has the potential to limit practicality in certain instances because compounding uncertainty can lead to a substantial inflation of the resulting probability bounds. Obtaining results in terms of probability bounds is also undesirable for practitioners. A potential alternative to address these concerns is using nonparametric methods, or a simplified metric.