Probabilistic Fragility Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Structures under Tsunami Hydrodynamic Loads of the ASCE 7 Standard: Fid-Bau Portal

Probabilistic Fragility Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Structures under Tsunami Hydrodynamic Loads of the ASCE 7 Standard

Abdelhafeez, M. / Ghanem, A. / Sherif, M.

Abstract

Tsunamis are commonly triggered by large earthquakes along the subduction zone. The public safety risk has been mitigated by warning and evacuation planning. However, community resilience needs essential and critical structures to be structurally resistant to hazards. The ASCE/Structural Engineering Institute (ASCE/SEI) Committee has developed the new ASCE 7 tsunami loads and effects provisions. This research uses ASCE 7 provisions to evaluate the structural reliability of the critical and essential infrastructure at risk of tsunami hazards. A new structural reliability approach was developed that combines structural analysis with reliability analysis to determine the failure probability using the first-order reliability method (FORM). Adaptive pushover analysis was performed to specify structural limit states in material strain threshold values. Fragility analysis was conducted using nonlinear tsunami static and dynamic time-history analyses. Fragility curves were numerically constructed using nonlinear regression analysis for various damage states with gradually rising flood depths. The result demonstrates that expected reliabilities for tsunami hydrodynamic loads fulfill the general objective of the ASCE 7 standard. They might be used in conjunction with a probabilistic risk assessment methodology to analyze the vulnerability of typical seaport structures exposed to tsunami hazards and the United States coastal areas and other locations with similar facilities worldwide.