Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Role of Waves in Forecasting Extreme Coastal Flooding under a Warming Climate: Insights from Norfolk, Virginia
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7149-2864
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2889-5956
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0552-3428
Coastal flooding occurs when the total water level (TWL) exceeds that of the natural or built coastal defense. Operational models used to forecast the TWL typically consider the combined effect of mean sea level (MSL), high tide, and storm surge. However, the extent to which storm waves run up the beach or structure has traditionally been neglected. Several studies argue that excluding wave run-up could lead to a significant underestimation of the resulting coastal flooding. Others, in direct opposition, argue that extreme wave run-up metrics artificially inflate the estimated TWL. Here, these contradictory findings are addressed by quantifying the contribution of wave runup to coastal flooding at Norfolk (VA, USA) during Hurricane Irene (2011) using the Delft3D FM and FUNWAVE numerical models. To assess the impact of a warming climate, the analysis considered a range of sea level rise values and hurricane intensities, including a combined scenario that represents a 3°C increase in sea surface temperature by the year 2100. Wave run-up contributed the most (48% on average) to the TWL at the coast relative to the existing MSL but accounted for <20% of the inundated area, with the remainder flooded by the tide, surge, and SLR. These findings confirm that while wave run-up might play an important role in the TWL and damage along the coast, its contribution to the overall flood extent will be secondary when measured against other factors like storm surge and SLR for low-lying areas with broad continental shelves, like Norfolk. In addition, this study demonstrates the utility of relating the characteristics of each driver of coastal flooding to a target warming level in providing a physical basis for the magnitudes considered when forecasting the compounding consequences of climate change.
Role of Waves in Forecasting Extreme Coastal Flooding under a Warming Climate: Insights from Norfolk, Virginia
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7149-2864
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2889-5956
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0552-3428
Coastal flooding occurs when the total water level (TWL) exceeds that of the natural or built coastal defense. Operational models used to forecast the TWL typically consider the combined effect of mean sea level (MSL), high tide, and storm surge. However, the extent to which storm waves run up the beach or structure has traditionally been neglected. Several studies argue that excluding wave run-up could lead to a significant underestimation of the resulting coastal flooding. Others, in direct opposition, argue that extreme wave run-up metrics artificially inflate the estimated TWL. Here, these contradictory findings are addressed by quantifying the contribution of wave runup to coastal flooding at Norfolk (VA, USA) during Hurricane Irene (2011) using the Delft3D FM and FUNWAVE numerical models. To assess the impact of a warming climate, the analysis considered a range of sea level rise values and hurricane intensities, including a combined scenario that represents a 3°C increase in sea surface temperature by the year 2100. Wave run-up contributed the most (48% on average) to the TWL at the coast relative to the existing MSL but accounted for <20% of the inundated area, with the remainder flooded by the tide, surge, and SLR. These findings confirm that while wave run-up might play an important role in the TWL and damage along the coast, its contribution to the overall flood extent will be secondary when measured against other factors like storm surge and SLR for low-lying areas with broad continental shelves, like Norfolk. In addition, this study demonstrates the utility of relating the characteristics of each driver of coastal flooding to a target warming level in providing a physical basis for the magnitudes considered when forecasting the compounding consequences of climate change.
Role of Waves in Forecasting Extreme Coastal Flooding under a Warming Climate: Insights from Norfolk, Virginia
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7149-2864
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2889-5956
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0552-3428
Coastal flooding occurs when the total water level (TWL) exceeds that of the natural or built coastal defense. Operational models used to forecast the TWL typically consider the combined effect of mean sea level (MSL), high tide, and storm surge. However, the extent to which storm waves run up the beach or structure has traditionally been neglected. Several studies argue that excluding wave run-up could lead to a significant underestimation of the resulting coastal flooding. Others, in direct opposition, argue that extreme wave run-up metrics artificially inflate the estimated TWL. Here, these contradictory findings are addressed by quantifying the contribution of wave runup to coastal flooding at Norfolk (VA, USA) during Hurricane Irene (2011) using the Delft3D FM and FUNWAVE numerical models. To assess the impact of a warming climate, the analysis considered a range of sea level rise values and hurricane intensities, including a combined scenario that represents a 3°C increase in sea surface temperature by the year 2100. Wave run-up contributed the most (48% on average) to the TWL at the coast relative to the existing MSL but accounted for <20% of the inundated area, with the remainder flooded by the tide, surge, and SLR. These findings confirm that while wave run-up might play an important role in the TWL and damage along the coast, its contribution to the overall flood extent will be secondary when measured against other factors like storm surge and SLR for low-lying areas with broad continental shelves, like Norfolk. In addition, this study demonstrates the utility of relating the characteristics of each driver of coastal flooding to a target warming level in providing a physical basis for the magnitudes considered when forecasting the compounding consequences of climate change.
Role of Waves in Forecasting Extreme Coastal Flooding under a Warming Climate: Insights from Norfolk, Virginia
J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng.
Lashley, Christopher H. (Autor:in) / Puleo, Jack (Autor:in) / Shi, Fengyan (Autor:in) / Nederhoff, Kees (Autor:in)
01.05.2025
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Coastal flooding, global warming and environmental management
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Norfolk Harbor, Virginia (maintenance Dredging)
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Post-Isabel Dune Reconstruction, Norfolk, Virginia
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