Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Reassessment of Dam Safety Using Bayesian Network
The paper presents an updated evaluation of the annual probability of failure for an embankment dam in Norway. Multiple plausible failure mechanisms were investigated. The first reliability analysis for the dam was performed in 1996. The purpose of the new reliability analysis for the dam was to update the analyses from 1996 with new knowledge from 2016, new methodologies and new competence on internal erosion; and to compare the dam reliability before and after the rehabilitation measures done between 1995 and 2016. The 1996 analyses were done with the event tree method, while the new reliability analyses were conducted with both the event tree and the Bayesian network approaches. After a screening of the plausible failure modes for the dam, the scenario occurrence probabilities and annual probability of dam breach were evaluated. The Bayesian network models were built based on the input from the event tree analysis. The Bayesian network analyses were supplemented with Monte Carlo simulations to obtain the statistics of the probability of dam breach in terms of the mean, high estimate and low estimate probabilities of failure. The Monte Carlo simulations used the probability bounds set by the experts participating in the event tree analysis. The results showed that the best estimate for annual probability of failure in 2016 for the embankment dam analyzed was 10-5, which, based on the literature and ICOLD statistics, is significantly lower than the breach rate for embankment dams and other types of dams in the world. The new Bayesian network analyses provided a range of numbers for probability of failure including the mean and best estimate. This is useful information for the stakeholders in decision-making. The paper summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of the analyses done in 2016, and how the former (1996) and latter (2016) risk assessments add useful insights into the safety of a dam.
Reassessment of Dam Safety Using Bayesian Network
The paper presents an updated evaluation of the annual probability of failure for an embankment dam in Norway. Multiple plausible failure mechanisms were investigated. The first reliability analysis for the dam was performed in 1996. The purpose of the new reliability analysis for the dam was to update the analyses from 1996 with new knowledge from 2016, new methodologies and new competence on internal erosion; and to compare the dam reliability before and after the rehabilitation measures done between 1995 and 2016. The 1996 analyses were done with the event tree method, while the new reliability analyses were conducted with both the event tree and the Bayesian network approaches. After a screening of the plausible failure modes for the dam, the scenario occurrence probabilities and annual probability of dam breach were evaluated. The Bayesian network models were built based on the input from the event tree analysis. The Bayesian network analyses were supplemented with Monte Carlo simulations to obtain the statistics of the probability of dam breach in terms of the mean, high estimate and low estimate probabilities of failure. The Monte Carlo simulations used the probability bounds set by the experts participating in the event tree analysis. The results showed that the best estimate for annual probability of failure in 2016 for the embankment dam analyzed was 10-5, which, based on the literature and ICOLD statistics, is significantly lower than the breach rate for embankment dams and other types of dams in the world. The new Bayesian network analyses provided a range of numbers for probability of failure including the mean and best estimate. This is useful information for the stakeholders in decision-making. The paper summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of the analyses done in 2016, and how the former (1996) and latter (2016) risk assessments add useful insights into the safety of a dam.
Reassessment of Dam Safety Using Bayesian Network
Liu, Z. Q. (Autor:in) / Nadim, F. (Autor:in) / Eidsvig, U. K. (Autor:in) / Lacasse, S. (Autor:in)
Geo-Risk 2017 ; 2017 ; Denver, Colorado
Geo-Risk 2017 ; 168-177
01.06.2017
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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