Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Stream Flow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation Models Using Fuzzy Inference Systems
In this study, a fuzzy inference system is developed for reservoir inflow forecasting and reservoir operation. The system consists of two models. In the first model, the seasonal river stream-flow is forecasted with a fuzzy rule based system. The southern oscillated index, rain, snow, and stream-flow are inputs of the model and the seasonal stream-flow is its output. The second model is a reservoir operation model based on an "If-Then" principle, where "If" is a vector of fuzzy premises and "Then" is fuzzy consequences. The reservoir storage capacity, inflow, demand, and year condition factor are used as the premises and monthly release is taken as the consequence. As a case study, the Zayandeh-Rood Reservoir in Iran is studied. To evaluate the performance of the operation model, different performance criteria such as reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability are calculated. Results indicate that use of this method in extracting knowledge from an informative data set having ill-defined and highly nonlinear structures would be helpful and have advantages over traditional operation methods such as standard operating policy or ordinary least-squared regression rules constructed based on the results of optimization models.
Stream Flow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation Models Using Fuzzy Inference Systems
In this study, a fuzzy inference system is developed for reservoir inflow forecasting and reservoir operation. The system consists of two models. In the first model, the seasonal river stream-flow is forecasted with a fuzzy rule based system. The southern oscillated index, rain, snow, and stream-flow are inputs of the model and the seasonal stream-flow is its output. The second model is a reservoir operation model based on an "If-Then" principle, where "If" is a vector of fuzzy premises and "Then" is fuzzy consequences. The reservoir storage capacity, inflow, demand, and year condition factor are used as the premises and monthly release is taken as the consequence. As a case study, the Zayandeh-Rood Reservoir in Iran is studied. To evaluate the performance of the operation model, different performance criteria such as reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability are calculated. Results indicate that use of this method in extracting knowledge from an informative data set having ill-defined and highly nonlinear structures would be helpful and have advantages over traditional operation methods such as standard operating policy or ordinary least-squared regression rules constructed based on the results of optimization models.
Stream Flow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation Models Using Fuzzy Inference Systems
Abrishamchi, A. (Autor:in) / Jamali, S. (Autor:in) / Mariño, M. A. (Autor:in) / Tajrishy, M. (Autor:in)
Operations Management Conference 2006 ; 2006 ; Sacramento, California, United States
03.08.2006
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Stream Flow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation Models Using Fuzzy Inference Systems
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