Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Adaptive and flexible approaches for water resources planning under uncertainty
Planning for water supply infrastructure includes identifying interventions that cost-effectively secure an acceptably reliable water supply. In investigating a range of feasible interventions, water planners are challenged by two main factors. First, uncertainty is inherent in the predictions of future demands and supplies due for example to hydrological variability and climate change. This makes fixed invest-ment plans brittle as they are likely to fail if future conditions turn out to be different than assumed. Therefore, adaptability to changing future conditions is increasingly viewed as a valuable strategy of water planning. However, there is a lack of approaches that explicitly seek to enhance the adaptivity of water resource system developments. Second, water resource system development typically af¬fects multiple societal groups with at times competing interests. The diversity of objectives in water resource systems mean that considering trade-offs between competing objectives implied by the highest performing interventions is useful. Nonetheless, few multi-objective applications have aimed at adaptive scheduling of interventions in long-term water resource planning. This thesis introduces two novel decision-making approaches that address these two challenges in turn. Both approaches apply principles of real option analysis via two different formulations (1) a multistage stochastic mathematical programme and (2) a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm coupled to a river basin simula¬tion. In both cases, a generalised scenario tree construction algorithm is used to efficiently approximate the probabilistic uncertainty. The tree consists of possible investment paths with multiple decision stages to allow for frequent and regu¬lar modifications to the investment strategies. Novel decision-relevant metrics of adaptivity and flexibility are introduced, evolving their definition in the context of water resources planning. The approaches are applied to London’s urban water resources planning problem. Results ...
Adaptive and flexible approaches for water resources planning under uncertainty
Planning for water supply infrastructure includes identifying interventions that cost-effectively secure an acceptably reliable water supply. In investigating a range of feasible interventions, water planners are challenged by two main factors. First, uncertainty is inherent in the predictions of future demands and supplies due for example to hydrological variability and climate change. This makes fixed invest-ment plans brittle as they are likely to fail if future conditions turn out to be different than assumed. Therefore, adaptability to changing future conditions is increasingly viewed as a valuable strategy of water planning. However, there is a lack of approaches that explicitly seek to enhance the adaptivity of water resource system developments. Second, water resource system development typically af¬fects multiple societal groups with at times competing interests. The diversity of objectives in water resource systems mean that considering trade-offs between competing objectives implied by the highest performing interventions is useful. Nonetheless, few multi-objective applications have aimed at adaptive scheduling of interventions in long-term water resource planning. This thesis introduces two novel decision-making approaches that address these two challenges in turn. Both approaches apply principles of real option analysis via two different formulations (1) a multistage stochastic mathematical programme and (2) a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm coupled to a river basin simula¬tion. In both cases, a generalised scenario tree construction algorithm is used to efficiently approximate the probabilistic uncertainty. The tree consists of possible investment paths with multiple decision stages to allow for frequent and regu¬lar modifications to the investment strategies. Novel decision-relevant metrics of adaptivity and flexibility are introduced, evolving their definition in the context of water resources planning. The approaches are applied to London’s urban water resources planning problem. Results ...
Adaptive and flexible approaches for water resources planning under uncertainty
Pachos, Kevis (Autor:in)
28.11.2019
Doctoral thesis, UCL (University College London).
Hochschulschrift
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Flexible Master Plans - Uncertainty in Water Resources Policy
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2000
Project Planning for Construction under Uncertainty with Limited Resources
| British Library Online Contents | 2007
Project Planning for Construction under Uncertainty with Limited Resources
| Online Contents | 2007
| British Library Online Contents | 2007