Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
The Long-Term Forecasting of the Mongolian Energy Demand and Supply Using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) Model ; 장기 에너지 대체 계획 시스템(LEAP) 모델을 사용한 몽고의 에너지 수요와 공급에 대한 장기 예측
학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2014. 2. Eunnyeong Heo. ; The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is one of the most important topics in relation to Mongolia due to the country’s abundant natural resources, which offer great opportunities for achieving independent, sustainable, and green energy development if managed properly. In this thesis, an overview of the current situation of Mongolia’s energy sector and its role and contribution in the country’s economy and environment, and a comprehensive assessment of the sector, are provided. Most importantly, the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model was used to forecast the future energy supply and demand and to build and compare possible scenarios that could sustain economic development, environmental sustainability, and energy security in the country. In this thesis, three scenarios for long-term energy development in Mongolia by 2040 were built using the LEAP model, and 2010 was set as the base year. The forecasting of the energy demand and supply was shown as a business-asusual (BAU) scenario, based on the existing national energy plans and trends, and a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available in Mongolia, such as hydro, wind, and solar energy, were suggested as the ii renewable energy (REN) scenario while improving the energy efficiency in every way that makes economic sense was assumed and analyzed in the energy efficiency (EE) scenario. Each scenario can represent a distinctive development pathway with different characteristics, which can be applied to Mongolia’s energy sector. ; Abstract i Appendices iv List of Tables v List of Figures vi CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Purpose of the Study 1 1.2 Research Motivation 4 1.3 Research Questions 5 1.4 Mongolia’s Geographic, Economic, and Government Policies 6 1.5 Mongolian Energy Sector 14 1.5.1 Fossil fuels 16 1.5.2 Renewables 20 1.6 Energy Demand and Consumption 25 1.6.1 Electricity consumption 26 1.6.2 Heat consumption 29 1.6.4 Government policy, program, and incentives for the energy sector 31 CHAPTER 2 - LITERATURE REVIEW 43 2.1 Overview 43 2.2 Energy Models 44 2.3 Summary of Popular Models 47 CHAPTER 3 - METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION 49 3.1 LEAP Model 49 3.1.1 Overview of the LEAP model 49 3.1.2 LEAP data requirements 51 3.1.3 Data collection for the Mongolian LEAP model 57 3.1.4 Building scenarios 60 CHAPTER 4 – RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 68 4.1 Energy Demand 68 CHAPTER 5 - CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 78 5.1 Conclusions 78 5.2 Policy Implications 79 5.3 Future Research 80 CHAPTER 6 REFERENCES 82 ; Master
The Long-Term Forecasting of the Mongolian Energy Demand and Supply Using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) Model ; 장기 에너지 대체 계획 시스템(LEAP) 모델을 사용한 몽고의 에너지 수요와 공급에 대한 장기 예측
학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2014. 2. Eunnyeong Heo. ; The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is one of the most important topics in relation to Mongolia due to the country’s abundant natural resources, which offer great opportunities for achieving independent, sustainable, and green energy development if managed properly. In this thesis, an overview of the current situation of Mongolia’s energy sector and its role and contribution in the country’s economy and environment, and a comprehensive assessment of the sector, are provided. Most importantly, the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model was used to forecast the future energy supply and demand and to build and compare possible scenarios that could sustain economic development, environmental sustainability, and energy security in the country. In this thesis, three scenarios for long-term energy development in Mongolia by 2040 were built using the LEAP model, and 2010 was set as the base year. The forecasting of the energy demand and supply was shown as a business-asusual (BAU) scenario, based on the existing national energy plans and trends, and a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available in Mongolia, such as hydro, wind, and solar energy, were suggested as the ii renewable energy (REN) scenario while improving the energy efficiency in every way that makes economic sense was assumed and analyzed in the energy efficiency (EE) scenario. Each scenario can represent a distinctive development pathway with different characteristics, which can be applied to Mongolia’s energy sector. ; Abstract i Appendices iv List of Tables v List of Figures vi CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Purpose of the Study 1 1.2 Research Motivation 4 1.3 Research Questions 5 1.4 Mongolia’s Geographic, Economic, and Government Policies 6 1.5 Mongolian Energy Sector 14 1.5.1 Fossil fuels 16 1.5.2 Renewables 20 1.6 Energy Demand and Consumption 25 1.6.1 Electricity consumption 26 1.6.2 Heat consumption 29 1.6.4 Government policy, program, and incentives for the energy sector 31 CHAPTER 2 - LITERATURE REVIEW 43 2.1 Overview 43 2.2 Energy Models 44 2.3 Summary of Popular Models 47 CHAPTER 3 - METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION 49 3.1 LEAP Model 49 3.1.1 Overview of the LEAP model 49 3.1.2 LEAP data requirements 51 3.1.3 Data collection for the Mongolian LEAP model 57 3.1.4 Building scenarios 60 CHAPTER 4 – RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 68 4.1 Energy Demand 68 CHAPTER 5 - CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 78 5.1 Conclusions 78 5.2 Policy Implications 79 5.3 Future Research 80 CHAPTER 6 REFERENCES 82 ; Master
The Long-Term Forecasting of the Mongolian Energy Demand and Supply Using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) Model ; 장기 에너지 대체 계획 시스템(LEAP) 모델을 사용한 몽고의 에너지 수요와 공급에 대한 장기 예측
잠바 (Autor:in) / Eunnyeong Heo / Jambaa Lkhagva / 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공
01.01.2014
Hochschulschrift
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
DDC:
690
| BASE | 2005
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