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A Multi-Faceted Statistical Approach for Safety Analysis of Pressurised CO2 Transmission Pipelines
Global efforts to reach net zero emissions targets rely heavily on Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) for decarbonising unabated coal power stations and industrial emissions sources such as refineries, cement and steel making industries. An essential element of the CCUS chain involves the large-scale transportation of the captured CO2 for permanent geological storage or as a feedstock for utilisation to produce chemicals or fuels. Pressurised pipelines are widely considered as the safest and most economical CO2 transport option. By 2050, the amount of captured CO2 is expected to increase significantly reaching ca. 7.6 Gt, requiring a vast network of 200,000 to 550,000 km of CO2 pipelines. Given that CO2 is increasingly toxic at concentrations over 7% vol/vol, and the large amounts involved, the failure of CO2 pipelines poses serious risks of fatalities, environmental damage, and economic losses. As such, ensuring the safe operation of such pipelines is of paramount importance to the public acceptability of CCUS as a viable means for tackling climate change. Central to the above is the reliable quantification of the risks posed by such pipelines in the event of an accidental failure. In essence the above involves three main steps namely, 1) modelling pipeline decompression to predict the outflow characteristics following failure, 2) performing quantitative risk assessment to evaluate the failure consequences, and 3) implementing emergency response planning strategies to mitigate the failure consequences to as low as reasonably practicable. This thesis presents the development and assessment of rigorous mathematical techniques for conducting such work. These include the development of a computationally efficient pressurised pipeline decompression model, an analytical approach for estimating pipe failure hole size distribution probability and a probabilistic Multi-Objective Optimisation (MOO) technique for optimising inline Emergency Shutdown Valve (ESDV) configuration. The computationally efficient ...
A Multi-Faceted Statistical Approach for Safety Analysis of Pressurised CO2 Transmission Pipelines
Global efforts to reach net zero emissions targets rely heavily on Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) for decarbonising unabated coal power stations and industrial emissions sources such as refineries, cement and steel making industries. An essential element of the CCUS chain involves the large-scale transportation of the captured CO2 for permanent geological storage or as a feedstock for utilisation to produce chemicals or fuels. Pressurised pipelines are widely considered as the safest and most economical CO2 transport option. By 2050, the amount of captured CO2 is expected to increase significantly reaching ca. 7.6 Gt, requiring a vast network of 200,000 to 550,000 km of CO2 pipelines. Given that CO2 is increasingly toxic at concentrations over 7% vol/vol, and the large amounts involved, the failure of CO2 pipelines poses serious risks of fatalities, environmental damage, and economic losses. As such, ensuring the safe operation of such pipelines is of paramount importance to the public acceptability of CCUS as a viable means for tackling climate change. Central to the above is the reliable quantification of the risks posed by such pipelines in the event of an accidental failure. In essence the above involves three main steps namely, 1) modelling pipeline decompression to predict the outflow characteristics following failure, 2) performing quantitative risk assessment to evaluate the failure consequences, and 3) implementing emergency response planning strategies to mitigate the failure consequences to as low as reasonably practicable. This thesis presents the development and assessment of rigorous mathematical techniques for conducting such work. These include the development of a computationally efficient pressurised pipeline decompression model, an analytical approach for estimating pipe failure hole size distribution probability and a probabilistic Multi-Objective Optimisation (MOO) technique for optimising inline Emergency Shutdown Valve (ESDV) configuration. The computationally efficient ...
A Multi-Faceted Statistical Approach for Safety Analysis of Pressurised CO2 Transmission Pipelines
Yi, Jiahuan (Autor:in) / Mahgerefteh, Haroun
28.10.2024
Doctoral thesis, UCL (University College London).
Hochschulschrift
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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