Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Public Investments in Disaster Risk Reduction: A Social Cost Benefit Analysis
The cautious treatment of natural disaster risk constitutes a major challenge for governments of affected countries. In the evaluation of public risk reduction interventions it should always be warranted that the scarce invested means are allocated efficiently and thus possess the potential to increase social welfare. In the present thesis public risk reduction projects are considered as investments and are evaluated on basis of a social cost benefit analysis. In the first part of the thesis an innovative risk management framework is developed, that allows to systematically identify the social exposure to natural hazards and to quantify disaster risk probabilistically both before and after implementation of the risk reduction measure. The second focus of the thesis constitutes the economic evaluation of human safety. In particular, general cost benefit rules for pricing enhanced human safety on basis of the willingness to pay (WTP) concept are derived. Special emphasis is given on the Life Quality Index (LQI) concept, which has recently gained increasing attention as a risk management tool in civil engineering. For the latter a new time consistent derivation method is developed in a general equilibrium model that clearly reveals the economic reasoning behind the index. Based on this the conventional LQI based safety pricing rule is extended and improved in its calibration. In the last part of the thesis the concept of real options is firstly applied to the evaluation of public disaster risk reduction interventions and the traditional net present value criterion is replaced by more extensive decision rules in the presence of uncertainty. Eventually, a detailed case study for the seismic risk management of San Francisco based on the disaster loss estimation program HAZUS demonstrates the practical applicability of the presented methodology.
Public Investments in Disaster Risk Reduction: A Social Cost Benefit Analysis
The cautious treatment of natural disaster risk constitutes a major challenge for governments of affected countries. In the evaluation of public risk reduction interventions it should always be warranted that the scarce invested means are allocated efficiently and thus possess the potential to increase social welfare. In the present thesis public risk reduction projects are considered as investments and are evaluated on basis of a social cost benefit analysis. In the first part of the thesis an innovative risk management framework is developed, that allows to systematically identify the social exposure to natural hazards and to quantify disaster risk probabilistically both before and after implementation of the risk reduction measure. The second focus of the thesis constitutes the economic evaluation of human safety. In particular, general cost benefit rules for pricing enhanced human safety on basis of the willingness to pay (WTP) concept are derived. Special emphasis is given on the Life Quality Index (LQI) concept, which has recently gained increasing attention as a risk management tool in civil engineering. For the latter a new time consistent derivation method is developed in a general equilibrium model that clearly reveals the economic reasoning behind the index. Based on this the conventional LQI based safety pricing rule is extended and improved in its calibration. In the last part of the thesis the concept of real options is firstly applied to the evaluation of public disaster risk reduction interventions and the traditional net present value criterion is replaced by more extensive decision rules in the presence of uncertainty. Eventually, a detailed case study for the seismic risk management of San Francisco based on the disaster loss estimation program HAZUS demonstrates the practical applicability of the presented methodology.
Public Investments in Disaster Risk Reduction: A Social Cost Benefit Analysis
Die Bewertung gesellschaftlicher Risikoreduktionsmaßnahmen von Naturkatastrophen: Eine soziale Kosten Nutzen Analyse
Pliefke, Timm (Autor:in) / Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig (Gastgebende Institution) / Peil, Udo (Akademische:r Betreuer:in)
2009
Sonstige
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
DDC:
624
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