Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Predictive Model for Bark Beetle Outbreaks in European Forests
Bark beetle outbreaks and forest mortality have rocketed in European forests because of warmer winters, intense droughts, and poor management. The methods developed to predict a bark beetle outbreak have three main limitations: (i) a small-spatial-scale implementation; (ii) specific field-based input datasets that are usually hard to obtain at large scales; and (iii) predictive models constrained by coarse climatic factors. Therefore, a methodological approach accounting for a comprehensive set of environmental traits that can predict a bark beetle outbreak accurately is needed. In particular, we aimed to (i) analyze the influence of environmental traits that cause bark beetle outbreaks; (ii) compare different machine learning architectures for predicting bark beetle attacks; and (iii) map the attack probability before the start of the bark beetle life cycle. Random Forest regression achieved the best-performing results. The predicted bark beetle damage reached a high robustness in the test area (F1 = 96.9, OA = 94.4) and showed low errors (CE = 2.0, OE = 4.2). Future improvements should focus on including additional variables, e.g., forest age and validation sites. Remote sensing-based methods contributed to detecting bark beetle outbreaks in large extensive forested areas in a cost-effective and robust manner.
Predictive Model for Bark Beetle Outbreaks in European Forests
Bark beetle outbreaks and forest mortality have rocketed in European forests because of warmer winters, intense droughts, and poor management. The methods developed to predict a bark beetle outbreak have three main limitations: (i) a small-spatial-scale implementation; (ii) specific field-based input datasets that are usually hard to obtain at large scales; and (iii) predictive models constrained by coarse climatic factors. Therefore, a methodological approach accounting for a comprehensive set of environmental traits that can predict a bark beetle outbreak accurately is needed. In particular, we aimed to (i) analyze the influence of environmental traits that cause bark beetle outbreaks; (ii) compare different machine learning architectures for predicting bark beetle attacks; and (iii) map the attack probability before the start of the bark beetle life cycle. Random Forest regression achieved the best-performing results. The predicted bark beetle damage reached a high robustness in the test area (F1 = 96.9, OA = 94.4) and showed low errors (CE = 2.0, OE = 4.2). Future improvements should focus on including additional variables, e.g., forest age and validation sites. Remote sensing-based methods contributed to detecting bark beetle outbreaks in large extensive forested areas in a cost-effective and robust manner.
Predictive Model for Bark Beetle Outbreaks in European Forests
Ángel Fernández-Carrillo (Autor:in) / Antonio Franco-Nieto (Autor:in) / María Julia Yagüe-Ballester (Autor:in) / Marta Gómez-Giménez (Autor:in)
2024
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Unbekannt
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
| DOAJ | 2018
Recent bark beetle outbreaks have little impact on streamflow in the Western United States
| DOAJ | 2016