Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Spatial frequency analysis of annual extreme daily precipitation across Japan
Study region: Japan. Study focus: In this study, we analyzed the spatial frequency of annual extreme daily precipitation (AEDP) across Japan once every 100 years. A large ensemble analysis was conducted using the database for policy decision making for future climate changes (d4PDF) for precipitation data. A non-parametric method was used to calculate the AEDP amounts for each 20-km cell across Japan. New hydrological insights for the region: The results indicated that AEDP of RP100-year occurs once approximately every 1.18 years in the historical simulation across Japan. Furthermore, according to the Representative Concentration Pathway delivering 8.5 W/m2 globally (RCP 8.5), the frequency of AEDP of RP100-year increases once every 1.00 years in the +4-K future simulation. The mean of AEDP of RP100-year occurrence area with a return period of 100 years is ~10.38 cells (~4150 km2), with a median of six cells (~2400 km2). With future changes in the mean area of AEDP occurrence with a return period of 100 years predicted in RCP 8.5, there could be a massive increase in the area over which AEDP occurs (by ~2.1 times when mean values are used and with a median predicted increase of ~5.0 times the area). Additionally, we examined extreme precipitation values for various return periods using d4PDF data to consider the relationship between the scale of extreme precipitation and its probability.
Spatial frequency analysis of annual extreme daily precipitation across Japan
Study region: Japan. Study focus: In this study, we analyzed the spatial frequency of annual extreme daily precipitation (AEDP) across Japan once every 100 years. A large ensemble analysis was conducted using the database for policy decision making for future climate changes (d4PDF) for precipitation data. A non-parametric method was used to calculate the AEDP amounts for each 20-km cell across Japan. New hydrological insights for the region: The results indicated that AEDP of RP100-year occurs once approximately every 1.18 years in the historical simulation across Japan. Furthermore, according to the Representative Concentration Pathway delivering 8.5 W/m2 globally (RCP 8.5), the frequency of AEDP of RP100-year increases once every 1.00 years in the +4-K future simulation. The mean of AEDP of RP100-year occurrence area with a return period of 100 years is ~10.38 cells (~4150 km2), with a median of six cells (~2400 km2). With future changes in the mean area of AEDP occurrence with a return period of 100 years predicted in RCP 8.5, there could be a massive increase in the area over which AEDP occurs (by ~2.1 times when mean values are used and with a median predicted increase of ~5.0 times the area). Additionally, we examined extreme precipitation values for various return periods using d4PDF data to consider the relationship between the scale of extreme precipitation and its probability.
Spatial frequency analysis of annual extreme daily precipitation across Japan
Hajime Yanagisawa (Autor:in) / So Kazama (Autor:in) / Yoshiya Touge (Autor:in)
2022
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Unbekannt
D4PDF , Return period , Return area , Median , Global warming , Physical geography , GB3-5030 , Geology , QE1-996.5
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
Spatial frequency analysis of annual extreme daily precipitation across Japan
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