Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Improving the Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Prices
Currently, oil is the key element of energy sustainability, and its prices and economy have a strong mutual influence. Modeling a good method to accurately predict oil prices over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to investors and policymakers. This paper forecasts oil prices using many predictor variables with a new time-varying weight combination approach. In doing so, we first use five single-variable time-varying parameter models to predict crude oil prices separately. Second, every special model is assigned a time-varying weight by the new combination approach. Finally, the forecasting results of oil prices are calculated. The results show that the paper’s method is robust and performs well compared to random walk.
Improving the Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Prices
Currently, oil is the key element of energy sustainability, and its prices and economy have a strong mutual influence. Modeling a good method to accurately predict oil prices over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to investors and policymakers. This paper forecasts oil prices using many predictor variables with a new time-varying weight combination approach. In doing so, we first use five single-variable time-varying parameter models to predict crude oil prices separately. Second, every special model is assigned a time-varying weight by the new combination approach. Finally, the forecasting results of oil prices are calculated. The results show that the paper’s method is robust and performs well compared to random walk.
Improving the Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Prices
Xuluo Yin (Autor:in) / Jiangang Peng (Autor:in) / Tian Tang (Autor:in)
2018
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Unbekannt
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors
| DOAJ | 2017
Improving higher lead period runoff forecasting accuracy: the SVM approach
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2000
Duration Estimate at Completion: Improving Earned Value Management Forecasting Accuracy
| Springer Verlag | 2020