Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Drought Characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea Using Time Series SPI and SPEI: 1981–2100
North Korea is a food-deficit nation in which climate change could have a significant impact on drought. We analyzed drought characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea using both the multiple timescales of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1981 to 2100. The probability of non-exceedance for a one-month SPEI below −1.0 was only 1.1% in the spring season of 1995 but increased to 24.4% in 2085. The SPEI for a ten-year return period varied from −0.6 to −0.9 in 1995 and decreased to −1.18 in 2025. The results indicate that severe drought is more likely to occur in future as a result of climate change. The seasonal drought conditions were also significantly influenced by climate change. The largest decrease in the SPEI occurred in late spring and early summer, both of which are important for rice growth. Drought characteristics include severity, duration, and intensity. Therefore, we applied the time series of SPIs and SPEIs to the runs theory and found that the drought intensity identified by one-month SPEIs in 1995 was at a level of 1.21, which reached 1.39 in 2085, implying that climate change will intensify drought in the future.
Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Drought Characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea Using Time Series SPI and SPEI: 1981–2100
North Korea is a food-deficit nation in which climate change could have a significant impact on drought. We analyzed drought characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea using both the multiple timescales of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1981 to 2100. The probability of non-exceedance for a one-month SPEI below −1.0 was only 1.1% in the spring season of 1995 but increased to 24.4% in 2085. The SPEI for a ten-year return period varied from −0.6 to −0.9 in 1995 and decreased to −1.18 in 2025. The results indicate that severe drought is more likely to occur in future as a result of climate change. The seasonal drought conditions were also significantly influenced by climate change. The largest decrease in the SPEI occurred in late spring and early summer, both of which are important for rice growth. Drought characteristics include severity, duration, and intensity. Therefore, we applied the time series of SPIs and SPEIs to the runs theory and found that the drought intensity identified by one-month SPEIs in 1995 was at a level of 1.21, which reached 1.39 in 2085, implying that climate change will intensify drought in the future.
Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Drought Characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea Using Time Series SPI and SPEI: 1981–2100
Sang-Hyun Lee (Autor:in) / Seung-Hwan Yoo (Autor:in) / Jin-Yong Choi (Autor:in) / Seungjong Bae (Autor:in)
2017
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Unbekannt
Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0
Analysis of Drought Intensity and Trends Using the Modified SPEI in South Korea from 1981 to 2010
| DOAJ | 2018
SPI and SPEI Drought Assessment and Prediction Using TBATS and ARIMA Models, Jordan
| DOAJ | 2023
SPEI-Based Approach to Agricultural Drought Monitoring in Vojvodina Region
| DOAJ | 2019