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Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Oscar E. Jurado / Jana Ulrich / Marc Scheibel / Henning W. Rust

To explicitly account for asymptotic dependence between rainfall intensity maxima of different accumulation duration, a recent development for estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves involves the use of a max-stable process. In our study, we aimed to estimate the impact on the performance of the return levels resulting from an IDF model that accounts for such asymptotical dependence. To investigate this impact, we compared the performance of the return level estimates of two IDF models using the quantile skill index (QSI). One IDF model is based on a max-stable process assuming asymptotic dependence; the other is a simplified (or reduced) duration-dependent GEV model assuming asymptotic independence. The resulting QSI shows that the overall performance of the two models is very similar, with the max-stable model slightly outperforming the other model for short durations ( $d \leq 10 h$ ). From a simulation study, we conclude that max-stable processes are worth considering for IDF curve estimation when focusing on short durations if the model’s asymptotic dependence can be assumed to be properly captured.

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Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Oscar E. Jurado / Jana Ulrich / Marc Scheibel / Henning W. Rust

To explicitly account for asymptotic dependence between rainfall intensity maxima of different accumulation duration, a recent development for estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves involves the use of a max-stable process. In our study, we aimed to estimate the impact on the performance of the return levels resulting from an IDF model that accounts for such asymptotical dependence. To investigate this impact, we compared the performance of the return level estimates of two IDF models using the quantile skill index (QSI). One IDF model is based on a max-stable process assuming asymptotic dependence; the other is a simplified (or reduced) duration-dependent GEV model assuming asymptotic independence. The resulting QSI shows that the overall performance of the two models is very similar, with the max-stable model slightly outperforming the other model for short durations ( $d \leq 10 h$ ). From a simulation study, we conclude that max-stable processes are worth considering for IDF curve estimation when focusing on short durations if the model’s asymptotic dependence can be assumed to be properly captured.

Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Oscar E. Jurado / Jana Ulrich / Marc Scheibel / Henning W. Rust

To explicitly account for asymptotic dependence between rainfall intensity maxima of different accumulation duration, a recent development for estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves involves the use of a max-stable process. In our study, we aimed to estimate the impact on the performance of the return levels resulting from an IDF model that accounts for such asymptotical dependence. To investigate this impact, we compared the performance of the return level estimates of two IDF models using the quantile skill index (QSI). One IDF model is based on a max-stable process assuming asymptotic dependence; the other is a simplified (or reduced) duration-dependent GEV model assuming asymptotic independence. The resulting QSI shows that the overall performance of the two models is very similar, with the max-stable model slightly outperforming the other model for short durations ( $d \leq 10 h$ ). From a simulation study, we conclude that max-stable processes are worth considering for IDF curve estimation when focusing on short durations if the model’s asymptotic dependence can be assumed to be properly captured.

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Titel:

Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Beteiligte:

Oscar E. Jurado (Autor:in) / Jana Ulrich (Autor:in) / Marc Scheibel (Autor:in) / Henning W. Rust (Autor:in)

Erschienen in:

Water, Vol 12, Iss 12, p 3314 (2020)

Erscheinungsdatum:

2020

ISSN:

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123314

Medientyp:

Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)

Format:

Elektronische Ressource

Sprache:

Unbekannt

Schlagwörter:

extreme value statistics , extreme precipitation , intensity-duration-frequency curve , max-stable process , duration-dependent GEV , Hydraulic engineering , TC1-978 , Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes , TD201-500

Metadata by DOAJ is licensed under CC BY-SA 1.0

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