Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways
Scenarios from integrated assessment models can provide insights into how carbon budgets relate to other policy-relevant indicators by including information on how fast and by how much emissions can be reduced. Such indicators include the peak year of global emissions, the decarbonisation rate and the deployment of low-carbon technology. Here, we show typical values for these indicators for different carbon budgets, using the recently compiled IPCC scenario database, and discuss how these vary as a function of non-CO _2 forcing, energy use and policy delay. For carbon budgets of 2000 GtCO _2 and less over the 2010–2100 period, supply of low carbon technologies needs to be scaled up massively from today’s levels, unless energy use is relatively low. For the subgroup of scenarios with a budget below 1000 GtCO _2 (consistent with >66% chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels), the 2050 contribution of low-carbon technologies is generally around 50%–75%, compared to less than 20% today (range refers to the 10–90th interval of available data).
Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways
Scenarios from integrated assessment models can provide insights into how carbon budgets relate to other policy-relevant indicators by including information on how fast and by how much emissions can be reduced. Such indicators include the peak year of global emissions, the decarbonisation rate and the deployment of low-carbon technology. Here, we show typical values for these indicators for different carbon budgets, using the recently compiled IPCC scenario database, and discuss how these vary as a function of non-CO _2 forcing, energy use and policy delay. For carbon budgets of 2000 GtCO _2 and less over the 2010–2100 period, supply of low carbon technologies needs to be scaled up massively from today’s levels, unless energy use is relatively low. For the subgroup of scenarios with a budget below 1000 GtCO _2 (consistent with >66% chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels), the 2050 contribution of low-carbon technologies is generally around 50%–75%, compared to less than 20% today (range refers to the 10–90th interval of available data).
Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways
Detlef P van Vuuren (Autor:in) / Heleen van Soest (Autor:in) / Keywan Riahi (Autor:in) / Leon Clarke (Autor:in) / Volker Krey (Autor:in) / Elmar Kriegler (Autor:in) / Joeri Rogelj (Autor:in) / Michiel Schaeffer (Autor:in) / Massimo Tavoni (Autor:in)
2016
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Unbekannt
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