Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Biophysical and Economic Analysis of Black Spruce Regeneration in Eastern Canada Using Global Climate Model Productivity Outputs
We explore the biophysical potential and economic attractiveness of black spruce (Picea mariana) regeneration in eastern Canada under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study integrates net primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity estimates from three major global climate models (GCMs), growth and yield equations specific to black spruce, and economic analyses to determine spatially varying investment values of black spruce regeneration—both including and excluding carbon sequestration benefits. Net present value (NPV) was used to represent financial attractiveness. It was assumed that stands would not be harvested at volumes less than 80 m3·ha−1. A baseline case with the stumpage price set to $20 m−3, stand establishment cost $500 ha−1, and the discount rate 4%, was used with wide-ranging sensitivity analyses conducted around these assumptions. These values represent the wide range of choices and outcomes possible with black spruce regeneration investments. The results indicated a latitudinal gradient in economic attractiveness, with higher forest productivity and NPVs in the southern portion of the study area; however, black spruce regeneration was not economically attractive unless regeneration costs were very low (representing something closer to a natural regeneration type scenario) and/or carbon sequestration benefits of at least $5 ton−1 CO2 were realized. In general, the optimal harvest rotation age increased with increasing carbon price by approximately 9 to 18 years. Results of this study highlight the importance of future price and yield expectations and establishment costs in evaluating forest investments.
Biophysical and Economic Analysis of Black Spruce Regeneration in Eastern Canada Using Global Climate Model Productivity Outputs
We explore the biophysical potential and economic attractiveness of black spruce (Picea mariana) regeneration in eastern Canada under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study integrates net primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity estimates from three major global climate models (GCMs), growth and yield equations specific to black spruce, and economic analyses to determine spatially varying investment values of black spruce regeneration—both including and excluding carbon sequestration benefits. Net present value (NPV) was used to represent financial attractiveness. It was assumed that stands would not be harvested at volumes less than 80 m3·ha−1. A baseline case with the stumpage price set to $20 m−3, stand establishment cost $500 ha−1, and the discount rate 4%, was used with wide-ranging sensitivity analyses conducted around these assumptions. These values represent the wide range of choices and outcomes possible with black spruce regeneration investments. The results indicated a latitudinal gradient in economic attractiveness, with higher forest productivity and NPVs in the southern portion of the study area; however, black spruce regeneration was not economically attractive unless regeneration costs were very low (representing something closer to a natural regeneration type scenario) and/or carbon sequestration benefits of at least $5 ton−1 CO2 were realized. In general, the optimal harvest rotation age increased with increasing carbon price by approximately 9 to 18 years. Results of this study highlight the importance of future price and yield expectations and establishment costs in evaluating forest investments.
Biophysical and Economic Analysis of Black Spruce Regeneration in Eastern Canada Using Global Climate Model Productivity Outputs
Jung Lee (Autor:in) / Daniel W. McKenney (Autor:in) / John H. Pedlar (Autor:in) / M. Altaf Arain (Autor:in)
2017
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Unbekannt
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