Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Observational constraint on climate model projections of global compound hot–dry events and the socioeconomic risks under climate change
The frequency of compound hot–dry events ( f _HD ) is projected to increase significantly with future warming, yet associated uncertainties remain considerable and poorly constrained. In this study, we constrain future projections of f _HD (2070–2099) using observations of recent trends in temperature ( T ) and precipitation ( P ) (1980–2014) during the warm-seasons. The physical mechanism is that the variance of f _HD across climate models is dominated by their projected changes in P (Δ P ), which can be constrained by recent trends in T and P . Compared to the raw projections, the observationally constrained f _HD is reduced by 9.68%–18.74%, with uncertainty narrowed by 3.79%–10.66% under the high emission scenario. The highest decline of f _HD is located in regions with low population and gross domestic product (GDP), and globally, population and GDP exposures to f _HD are reduced by 6.02%–10.73% and 6.51%–12.03%, respectively. The observationally constrained f _HD with lower uncertainty provides more reliable information for risk management under climate change.
Observational constraint on climate model projections of global compound hot–dry events and the socioeconomic risks under climate change
The frequency of compound hot–dry events ( f _HD ) is projected to increase significantly with future warming, yet associated uncertainties remain considerable and poorly constrained. In this study, we constrain future projections of f _HD (2070–2099) using observations of recent trends in temperature ( T ) and precipitation ( P ) (1980–2014) during the warm-seasons. The physical mechanism is that the variance of f _HD across climate models is dominated by their projected changes in P (Δ P ), which can be constrained by recent trends in T and P . Compared to the raw projections, the observationally constrained f _HD is reduced by 9.68%–18.74%, with uncertainty narrowed by 3.79%–10.66% under the high emission scenario. The highest decline of f _HD is located in regions with low population and gross domestic product (GDP), and globally, population and GDP exposures to f _HD are reduced by 6.02%–10.73% and 6.51%–12.03%, respectively. The observationally constrained f _HD with lower uncertainty provides more reliable information for risk management under climate change.
Observational constraint on climate model projections of global compound hot–dry events and the socioeconomic risks under climate change
Lei Yao (Autor:in) / Guoyong Leng (Autor:in) / Linfei Yu (Autor:in) / Haiyang Tu (Autor:in) / Jiali Qiu (Autor:in)
2024
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Unbekannt
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| DOAJ | 2022
| Springer Verlag | 2016
Towards probabilistic projections of climate change
| Online Contents | 2009
Towards probabilistic projections of climate change
| Online Contents | 2009