Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Prediction of extreme wind by stochastic typhoon model considering climate change
Abstract Stochastic method in extreme meteorology such as typhoon involves the use of statistical models to represent the climatological characteristics of the typhoon and physical models consisting mainly of genesis, intensity, tracks and wind field. This paper presents an MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) based on models for genesis, intensity, tracks and wind field to estimate the extreme wind speed of future typhoons. This proposed method calculates GPIs (Genesis Potential Index) using ERA-interim data to consider the effects of climatological factors on the genesis of typhoons which are modelled based on the correlations between GPIs and past typhoon genesis locations. The intensity of typhoons is modelled using SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and OOR (Oceanic Occupation Ratio). The typhoon tracks are determined through an Auto Regression method. The wind field is estimated using a modified Batts’ model, and Global Circulation Models (GCM) is adopted to estimate future extreme wind speeds. In order to reduce the inherent uncertainty, the reliability ensemble averaging is applied. The comparison of the wind speed estimated for Korean peninsula with those of other researchers reveals that the proposed method can more reasonably predict the maximum wind speed used to determine structural design speed considering regional and climatic factors.
Highlights A new estimation of extreme wind speeds for typhoon-prone regions is suggested using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). MCS adopts statistical models involving models for genesis, intensity, tracking and wind field of typhoons. Genesis and intensity models are based on GPI, and SST, OOR and others, respectively. Tracking models utilizes the regression analysis of the traveling distance of past typhoons. Climate change is considered to implement the meteorological factors in MCS for the future. The future wind is estimated considering scenarios from CMIP5 models for IPCC’s RCP 8.5 condition. As uncertainty from each model of CMIPS5, REA (Reliability Ensemble Averaging) was implemented. Wind speeds during summers of 2080-2099 appeared to be lower on the western side of the Korean peninsula at higher latitude.
Prediction of extreme wind by stochastic typhoon model considering climate change
Abstract Stochastic method in extreme meteorology such as typhoon involves the use of statistical models to represent the climatological characteristics of the typhoon and physical models consisting mainly of genesis, intensity, tracks and wind field. This paper presents an MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) based on models for genesis, intensity, tracks and wind field to estimate the extreme wind speed of future typhoons. This proposed method calculates GPIs (Genesis Potential Index) using ERA-interim data to consider the effects of climatological factors on the genesis of typhoons which are modelled based on the correlations between GPIs and past typhoon genesis locations. The intensity of typhoons is modelled using SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and OOR (Oceanic Occupation Ratio). The typhoon tracks are determined through an Auto Regression method. The wind field is estimated using a modified Batts’ model, and Global Circulation Models (GCM) is adopted to estimate future extreme wind speeds. In order to reduce the inherent uncertainty, the reliability ensemble averaging is applied. The comparison of the wind speed estimated for Korean peninsula with those of other researchers reveals that the proposed method can more reasonably predict the maximum wind speed used to determine structural design speed considering regional and climatic factors.
Highlights A new estimation of extreme wind speeds for typhoon-prone regions is suggested using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). MCS adopts statistical models involving models for genesis, intensity, tracking and wind field of typhoons. Genesis and intensity models are based on GPI, and SST, OOR and others, respectively. Tracking models utilizes the regression analysis of the traveling distance of past typhoons. Climate change is considered to implement the meteorological factors in MCS for the future. The future wind is estimated considering scenarios from CMIP5 models for IPCC’s RCP 8.5 condition. As uncertainty from each model of CMIPS5, REA (Reliability Ensemble Averaging) was implemented. Wind speeds during summers of 2080-2099 appeared to be lower on the western side of the Korean peninsula at higher latitude.
Prediction of extreme wind by stochastic typhoon model considering climate change
Kim, Ga Young (Autor:in) / Lee, Sungsu (Autor:in)
Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics ; 192 ; 17-30
11.05.2019
14 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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