A simplified method of generating sequential meteorological parameters for uncertainty-based energy system design: Fid-Bau Portal

A simplified method of generating sequential meteorological parameters for uncertainty-based energy system design

Lan, Bo / Tian, Zhe / Wu, Xia

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Highlights • A simplified generation method for sequential meteorological parameters is proposed. • The maximum information coefficient is adopted to simplify uncertain factors. • A method based on information entropy for Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. • The proposed method is validated by application with the TRNSYS model. • Calculation time can be reduced by 89.3% compared with the original method.

Abstract The random variation of meteorological parameters affects both building load and energy system design. Although long-term historical meteorological data can reflect this characteristic, a large amount of high-dimensional meteorological data can bring great difficulties to the design process. Therefore, a simplified method of generating meteorological parameters for an uncertainty-based energy system design is proposed in this study. To simplify the meteorological elements, a sensitivity analysis is first carried out based on the maximum information coefficient. Then, combined with the deterministic model and stochastic model of the meteorological parameters, a mixed time-series meteorological model is proposed to reflect the uncertainty. Finally, to generate random meteorological data, based on information entropy theory, Monte Carlo simulation method is adopted and improved by determining the minimum number of simulations. The efficiency and accuracy of this method are verified using a solar heating system design as an example. Results show that the characteristics of uncertainty and time sequence in the meteorological data generated by this method can be well retained. Moreover, the calculation amount can be reduced by 89.3% compared with the original design method.