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Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Application of MDCEV to infrastructure planning in regional freight transport
Highlights Application of MDCEV model to regional freight. Destination port and transport mode choice model. Use of consignment bills (RP) and SP data for modelling. Rail infrastructure improvement evaluation. Non-deterministic willingness to pay and cost benefit analysis.
Abstract The main objective of the paper is to develop a model capable of evaluating the societal impact of rail infrastructure investment in Argentina, using a Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Model (MDCEV) estimated on Stated and Revealed preference data. The decision modelled is the mode and port choice at a planning level, where multiple alternatives can be chosen simultaneously. The relevant variables were the Free Alongside Ship (FAS) price, freight transport cost, travel time and lead time, including non-observed heterogeneity in the modelling. As a consequence, the willingness to pay measures that are used for the cost benefit analysis become non-deterministic. To include this effect simulated WTP measurements were included and compared to a deterministic and risk based approach. Two projects were tested and both showed that the deterministic approach gives higher Benefit/Cost ratio. This paper raises the concern that if non-observed heterogeneity is not considered in project evaluation it may provide misleading results and potentially lead to wrong investment priorities for the public sector.
Application of MDCEV to infrastructure planning in regional freight transport
Highlights Application of MDCEV model to regional freight. Destination port and transport mode choice model. Use of consignment bills (RP) and SP data for modelling. Rail infrastructure improvement evaluation. Non-deterministic willingness to pay and cost benefit analysis.
Abstract The main objective of the paper is to develop a model capable of evaluating the societal impact of rail infrastructure investment in Argentina, using a Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Model (MDCEV) estimated on Stated and Revealed preference data. The decision modelled is the mode and port choice at a planning level, where multiple alternatives can be chosen simultaneously. The relevant variables were the Free Alongside Ship (FAS) price, freight transport cost, travel time and lead time, including non-observed heterogeneity in the modelling. As a consequence, the willingness to pay measures that are used for the cost benefit analysis become non-deterministic. To include this effect simulated WTP measurements were included and compared to a deterministic and risk based approach. Two projects were tested and both showed that the deterministic approach gives higher Benefit/Cost ratio. This paper raises the concern that if non-observed heterogeneity is not considered in project evaluation it may provide misleading results and potentially lead to wrong investment priorities for the public sector.
Application of MDCEV to infrastructure planning in regional freight transport
Tapia, Rodrigo J. (Autor:in) / de Jong, Gerard (Autor:in) / Larranaga, Ana M. (Autor:in) / Bettella Cybis, Helena B. (Autor:in)
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice ; 133 ; 255-271
01.01.2020
17 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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