Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Abstract In risk assessment and management of rainfall-induced landslides, annual frequency or probability of slope failure has often been used as a straightforward index for quantitatively measuring landslide risk. It is therefore of great interest to predict the annual failure probability of a specific slope when subjected to rainfall infiltration. This study derives analytical solutions, respectively, for assessing the probability of slope failure caused by a single rainfall event, the annual probability of slope failure induced by rainfall, and slope failure probability over some years. The analytical solutions rely on two key elements: (1) a bivariate distribution of rainfall intensity and duration which reflects local rainfall characteristics for a given slope, and (2) a critical rainfall pattern curve (CRPC) that comprehensively represents a slope's rainfall-induced performance under a wide spectrum of rainfall patterns. The proposed method is illustrated and verified by an engineered cut slope in South Korea. The estimated high annual failure probability is consistent with the observed slope failure in the field. The proposed method can be implemented easily and efficiently. The proposed method can also be used to quantitatively evaluate the landslide risk (e.g., annual failure probability) with or without stabilization, leading to risk-informed slope designs.
Highlights Analytical solutions are derived for probability of rainfall-induced landslides. A bivariate distribution is adopted to model rainfall intensity and duration. A critical rainfall pattern curve (CRPC) is used to represent slope performance. The proposed method can be easily and efficiently implemented. A real landslide case history is used to illustrate the method.
Abstract In risk assessment and management of rainfall-induced landslides, annual frequency or probability of slope failure has often been used as a straightforward index for quantitatively measuring landslide risk. It is therefore of great interest to predict the annual failure probability of a specific slope when subjected to rainfall infiltration. This study derives analytical solutions, respectively, for assessing the probability of slope failure caused by a single rainfall event, the annual probability of slope failure induced by rainfall, and slope failure probability over some years. The analytical solutions rely on two key elements: (1) a bivariate distribution of rainfall intensity and duration which reflects local rainfall characteristics for a given slope, and (2) a critical rainfall pattern curve (CRPC) that comprehensively represents a slope's rainfall-induced performance under a wide spectrum of rainfall patterns. The proposed method is illustrated and verified by an engineered cut slope in South Korea. The estimated high annual failure probability is consistent with the observed slope failure in the field. The proposed method can be implemented easily and efficiently. The proposed method can also be used to quantitatively evaluate the landslide risk (e.g., annual failure probability) with or without stabilization, leading to risk-informed slope designs.
Highlights Analytical solutions are derived for probability of rainfall-induced landslides. A bivariate distribution is adopted to model rainfall intensity and duration. A critical rainfall pattern curve (CRPC) is used to represent slope performance. The proposed method can be easily and efficiently implemented. A real landslide case history is used to illustrate the method.
Analytical solutions for annual probability of slope failure induced by rainfall at a specific slope using bivariate distribution of rainfall intensity and duration
Engineering Geology ; 313
09.12.2022
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Annual failure probability , Rainfall-induced landslides , Risk assessment , Slope reliability , BDC , Break down coefficient , CDF , Cumulative distribution function , CRPC , Critical rainfall pattern curve , FS , Factor of safety , GEO , Geotechnical Engineering Office , GEV , Generalized extreme value , HCF , Hydraulic conductivity function , IDF , Intensity-duration-frequency , IETD , Inter-event time definition , LEM , Limit equilibrium method , PDF , Probability density function , SWCC , Soil water characteristic curve
Assessing annual probability of rainfall-induced slope failure through a mechanics-based model
| Springer Verlag | 2022