A Pan-European high resolution storm surge hindcast: Fid-Bau Portal

A Pan-European high resolution storm surge hindcast

Fernández-Montblanc, T. / Vousdoukas, M.I. / Mentaschi, L. / Ciavola, P.

Highlights • A high resolution pan-European storm surge hindcast dataset was produced. • Satisfactory predictive skill on coastal areas assessed against 252 tidal gauge measurements. • High performance of hindcast ability in the open ocean based on altimetry satellite comparison. • Extreme storm surges increase (decrease) in latitudes above (below) 50 °N during the period 1979–2016. • Seasonal extreme SSL variation is particularly strong in the northern part of Europe.

Abstract This contribution presents the high-resolution Pan-European storm surge (SSL) dataset, ANYEU-SSL, produced with the SCHISM circulation model. The dataset covers 40 years (1979–2018) of SSL data along the European coastline with 3-hour temporal resolution and has been extensively validated for the period spanning from 1979 to 2016, considering the whole time series, as well as for the extreme SSL values. Validation against tidal gauge data shows an average RMSE of 0.10 m, and RMSE below 0.12 m in 75% of the tidal gauges. Comparisons with satellite altimetry data show average RMSE of 0.07 m. SSL trends are estimated as an example of a potential application case of the dataset. The results indicate an overall latitudinal gradient in the trend of the extreme storm surge magnitude for the period 1979–2016. SSLs appear to increase in areas with latitudes >50 °N and to decrease in the lower latitudes. Additionally, a seasonal variation of the extreme SSL, particularly strong in the northern areas, has been observed. The dataset is publicly available and aspires to provide the scientific community with an important data source for the study of storm surge phenomena and consequential impacts, either on large or local scales.