Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Analysis of uncertainties in the estimates of nitrous oxide and methane emissions in the UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture
Abstract The UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture uses a model based on the IPCC Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods to estimate the emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture. The inventory calculations are disaggregated at country level (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). Before now, no detailed assessment of the uncertainties in the estimates of emissions had been done. We used Monte Carlo simulation to do such an analysis. We collated information on the uncertainties of each of the model inputs. The uncertainties propagate through the model and result in uncertainties in the estimated emissions. Using a sensitivity analysis, we found that in England and Scotland the uncertainty in the emission factor for emissions from N inputs (EF1) affected uncertainty the most, but that in Wales and Northern Ireland, the emission factor for N leaching and runoff (EF5) had greater influence. We showed that if the uncertainty in any one of these emission factors is reduced by 50%, the uncertainty in emissions of nitrous oxide reduces by 10%. The uncertainty in the estimate for the emissions of methane emission factors for enteric fermentation in cows and sheep most affected the uncertainty in methane emissions. When inventories are disaggregated (as that for the UK is) correlation between separate instances of each emission factor will affect the uncertainty in emissions. As more countries move towards inventory models with disaggregation, it is important that the IPCC give firm guidance on this topic.
Highlights We calculated the uncertainty in the estimated emissions of N2O and CH4 from UK agriculture. IPCC Emission factors EF1 and EF5 contributed most to the uncertainty in N2O emissions. Enteric fermentation emission factors contributed most to the uncertainty in CH4 emissions. We note the importance of incorporating variables into calculations at the correct scale.
Analysis of uncertainties in the estimates of nitrous oxide and methane emissions in the UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture
Abstract The UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture uses a model based on the IPCC Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods to estimate the emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture. The inventory calculations are disaggregated at country level (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). Before now, no detailed assessment of the uncertainties in the estimates of emissions had been done. We used Monte Carlo simulation to do such an analysis. We collated information on the uncertainties of each of the model inputs. The uncertainties propagate through the model and result in uncertainties in the estimated emissions. Using a sensitivity analysis, we found that in England and Scotland the uncertainty in the emission factor for emissions from N inputs (EF1) affected uncertainty the most, but that in Wales and Northern Ireland, the emission factor for N leaching and runoff (EF5) had greater influence. We showed that if the uncertainty in any one of these emission factors is reduced by 50%, the uncertainty in emissions of nitrous oxide reduces by 10%. The uncertainty in the estimate for the emissions of methane emission factors for enteric fermentation in cows and sheep most affected the uncertainty in methane emissions. When inventories are disaggregated (as that for the UK is) correlation between separate instances of each emission factor will affect the uncertainty in emissions. As more countries move towards inventory models with disaggregation, it is important that the IPCC give firm guidance on this topic.
Highlights We calculated the uncertainty in the estimated emissions of N2O and CH4 from UK agriculture. IPCC Emission factors EF1 and EF5 contributed most to the uncertainty in N2O emissions. Enteric fermentation emission factors contributed most to the uncertainty in CH4 emissions. We note the importance of incorporating variables into calculations at the correct scale.
Analysis of uncertainties in the estimates of nitrous oxide and methane emissions in the UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture
Milne, Alice E. (Autor:in) / Glendining, Margaret J. (Autor:in) / Bellamy, Pat (Autor:in) / Misselbrook, Tom (Autor:in) / Gilhespy, Sarah (Autor:in) / Rivas Casado, Monica (Autor:in) / Hulin, Adele (Autor:in) / van Oijen, Marcel (Autor:in) / Whitmore, Andrew P. (Autor:in)
Atmospheric Environment ; 82 ; 94-105
03.10.2013
12 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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