Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Time Series Forecasting of Highway Accident Fatalities
Using twelve years of time series data on highway fatalities, the methodology currently employed by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to forecast the annual (calendar year) total of highway accident fatalities were compared with those obtained by several computer routines based on exponential smoothing techniques and available at the National Bureau of Standards. The use of unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data was also examined. It is found that there is no evidence to lead to abandoning the present NHTSA methods in favor of readily available computer routines based on exponential smoothing methods. Of the methods examined in the study, the best results were obtained with the EXPSMOOTHING routine using unadjusted fatality data.
Time Series Forecasting of Highway Accident Fatalities
Using twelve years of time series data on highway fatalities, the methodology currently employed by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to forecast the annual (calendar year) total of highway accident fatalities were compared with those obtained by several computer routines based on exponential smoothing techniques and available at the National Bureau of Standards. The use of unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data was also examined. It is found that there is no evidence to lead to abandoning the present NHTSA methods in favor of readily available computer routines based on exponential smoothing methods. Of the methods examined in the study, the best results were obtained with the EXPSMOOTHING routine using unadjusted fatality data.
Time Series Forecasting of Highway Accident Fatalities
A. R. Craw (Autor:in)
1973
39 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
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