The Development of a Transportation Planning Land Use Model: Fid-Bau Portal

The Development of a Transportation Planning Land Use Model

C. F. Floyd / M. J. Rowan / J. B. Kau / H. S. Maggied

The Georgia Transportation Planning Land Use Model is designed to aid transportation planners in ascertaining the impact of a rural transportation corridor improvement on the economic and land use structure of adjoining communities. When used to analyze the impact of alternative corridors, it can also assist in the development of statewide or sub-state regional transportation plans. The model provides maximum flexibility in estimation procedures, explicit judgmental intervention, and continuing participation by users. A description of the model, preliminary test results and final testing for five project corridors in Georgia are presented. Projections of employment, population, and housing are allocated to counties based upon multiple regression analysis, shift-share analysis, and other techniques. These projections were judgmentally compared with the 'Delphi Forecast,' a method of sampling expert opinion during the preliminary testing. They are then translated into projected future land consumption by the land supply submodel. The available usable land supply in the test area, assuming no additional public constraints, appears to be fully adequate to accommodate projected economic growth and development beyond 1990.