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Analysis of downscaled climatic simulations to infer future changes on high precipitation in Spain
The potential impact of several downscaled climate simulations (DCS) on high precipitation in Spain during the twenty-first century has been investigated. Two types of precipitation time series, derived from DCS, were used: annual maximum daily precipitation (AMDP) and high precipitation index (R95 T). Statistical tests were applied to detect significant trends (Mann-Kendall test), changes in median (Wilcoxon test), and changes in variance (Fligner-Killeen test), as well as the regional significance of these changes (Binomial test). Furthermore, the SQRT-et-max distribution was adjusted to quantify changes in the AMDP frequency. In general, no clear trends or changes in median, variability or frequency were detected in the AMDP series. R95 T series, though, showed some signs of positive trends and median increments. Thus, a lack of clear patterns of change in high precipitation events may be concluded. Finally, two sources of uncertainty are worth highlighting: the bias of the DCS values when compared with observed data, and the variability among the different DCS results.
Analysis of downscaled climatic simulations to infer future changes on high precipitation in Spain
The potential impact of several downscaled climate simulations (DCS) on high precipitation in Spain during the twenty-first century has been investigated. Two types of precipitation time series, derived from DCS, were used: annual maximum daily precipitation (AMDP) and high precipitation index (R95 T). Statistical tests were applied to detect significant trends (Mann-Kendall test), changes in median (Wilcoxon test), and changes in variance (Fligner-Killeen test), as well as the regional significance of these changes (Binomial test). Furthermore, the SQRT-et-max distribution was adjusted to quantify changes in the AMDP frequency. In general, no clear trends or changes in median, variability or frequency were detected in the AMDP series. R95 T series, though, showed some signs of positive trends and median increments. Thus, a lack of clear patterns of change in high precipitation events may be concluded. Finally, two sources of uncertainty are worth highlighting: the bias of the DCS values when compared with observed data, and the variability among the different DCS results.
Analysis of downscaled climatic simulations to infer future changes on high precipitation in Spain
Barranco, Luis M (Autor:in) / Álvarez-Rodríguez, Javier / Olivera, Francisco / Potenciano, Ángela
2017
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Englisch
Analysis of downscaled climatic simulations to infer future changes on high precipitation in Spain
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