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Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9596-267X
Abstract Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and autoregressive modeling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and $$\Delta \hbox {UT1}$$ for up to 90 days into the future. Based on hindcast experiments covering the years 2016 and 2017, a best performing parametrization was elaborated. At forecast horizons of 10 days, remaining prediction errors are 3.02 and 5.39 mas for PM and $$\Delta \hbox {UT1}$$, respectively, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 44.7% when compared to predictions reported routinely in Bulletin A of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. At forecast horizons of 60 days, prediction errors are 12.52 and 107.96 mas for PM and $$\Delta \hbox {UT1}$$, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 8.2% over Bulletin A. The 90-day-long EAM forecasts leading to those improved EOP predictions are routinely published on a daily basis at isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/esmdata/eam.
Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9596-267X
Abstract Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and autoregressive modeling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and $$\Delta \hbox {UT1}$$ for up to 90 days into the future. Based on hindcast experiments covering the years 2016 and 2017, a best performing parametrization was elaborated. At forecast horizons of 10 days, remaining prediction errors are 3.02 and 5.39 mas for PM and $$\Delta \hbox {UT1}$$, respectively, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 44.7% when compared to predictions reported routinely in Bulletin A of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. At forecast horizons of 60 days, prediction errors are 12.52 and 107.96 mas for PM and $$\Delta \hbox {UT1}$$, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 8.2% over Bulletin A. The 90-day-long EAM forecasts leading to those improved EOP predictions are routinely published on a daily basis at isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/esmdata/eam.
Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9596-267X
Abstract Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and autoregressive modeling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and $$\Delta \hbox {UT1}$$ for up to 90 days into the future. Based on hindcast experiments covering the years 2016 and 2017, a best performing parametrization was elaborated. At forecast horizons of 10 days, remaining prediction errors are 3.02 and 5.39 mas for PM and $$\Delta \hbox {UT1}$$, respectively, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 44.7% when compared to predictions reported routinely in Bulletin A of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. At forecast horizons of 60 days, prediction errors are 12.52 and 107.96 mas for PM and $$\Delta \hbox {UT1}$$, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 8.2% over Bulletin A. The 90-day-long EAM forecasts leading to those improved EOP predictions are routinely published on a daily basis at isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/esmdata/eam.
Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere
Dill, R. (Autor:in) / Dobslaw, H. (Autor:in) / Thomas, M. (Autor:in)
Journal of Geodesy ; 93
2018
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Englisch
BKL:
38.73
Geodäsie
Use of atmospheric angular momentum forecasts for UT1 predictions: analyses over CONT08
| Online Contents | 2011
Use of atmospheric angular momentum forecasts for UT1 predictions: analyses over CONT08
| Online Contents | 2011