Hydrogen and transportation: alternative scenarios: Fid-Bau Portal

Hydrogen and transportation: alternative scenarios

Difiglio, Carmen / Gielen, Dolf

Abstract If hydrogen ($ H_{2} $) is to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and oil use, it needs to displace conventional transport fuels and be produced in ways that do not generate significant greenhouse gas emissions. This paper analyses alternative ways $ H_{2} $ can be produced, transported and used to achieve these goals. Several $ H_{2} $ scenarios are developed and compared to each other. In addition, other technology options to achieve these goals are analyzed. A full fuel cycle analysis is used to compare the energy use and carbon (C) emissions of different fuel and vehicle strategies. Fuel and vehicle costs are presented as well as cost-effectiveness estimates. Lowest hydrogen fuel costs are achieved using fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The fuel supply cost for a $ H_{2} $ fuel cell car would be close to those for an advanced gasoline car, once a large-scale supply system has been established. Biomass, wind, nuclear and solar sources are estimated to be considerably more expensive. However fuel cells cost much more than combustion engines. When vehicle costs are considered, climate policy incentives are probably insufficient to achieve a switch to $ H_{2} $. The carbon dioxide ($ CO_{2} $) mitigation cost would amount to several hundred US$ per ton of $ CO_{2} $. Energy security goals and the eventual need to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations could be sufficient. Nonetheless, substantial development of related technologies, such as C capture and storage will be needed. Significant $ H_{2} $ use will also require substantial market intervention during a transition period when there are too few vehicles to motivate widely available $ H_{2} $ refueling.