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The role of demographics in precipitating economic downturns
Abstract There are significant effects of changing demographics on economic indicators: not only growth in GDP but also the current account balance and gross capital formation. The 15–24 age group is one of the key age groups in these effects, with increases in that age group exerting strong positive effects on GDP growth, and negative effects on the CAB and GCF. There have been major shifts in the share of the population aged 15–24 during the past half century or more, and 80% of these globally coincide with declines in GDP growth. This appears to have been the pattern in four financial crises since 1980 as well as Japan’s “lost decade.” The effect is even more pronounced for the 2008–2009 period.
The role of demographics in precipitating economic downturns
Abstract There are significant effects of changing demographics on economic indicators: not only growth in GDP but also the current account balance and gross capital formation. The 15–24 age group is one of the key age groups in these effects, with increases in that age group exerting strong positive effects on GDP growth, and negative effects on the CAB and GCF. There have been major shifts in the share of the population aged 15–24 during the past half century or more, and 80% of these globally coincide with declines in GDP growth. This appears to have been the pattern in four financial crises since 1980 as well as Japan’s “lost decade.” The effect is even more pronounced for the 2008–2009 period.
The role of demographics in precipitating economic downturns
Macunovich, Diane J. (Autor:in)
2010
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
RVK:
ELIB39
/
ELIB45
Lokalklassifikation FBW:
oek 2608
BKL:
74.80
Demographie
/
83.31$jWirtschaftswachstum
/
74.80$jDemographie$XGeographie
/
83.31
Wirtschaftswachstum
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