Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Consequences of the Failure of a Water Storage System
Abstract Evaluation and prediction of socio-economic consequences of an accidental failure of a water storage system must be based on hydrologic impact studies of the area downstream. Such studies are necessary for developing emergency plans and, based on these, for issuing flood warnings sufficiently early that the population downstream can be evacuated and damage to industrial and agricultural properties can be reduced. In view of the inaccuracy involved in determining the flood hydrograph for the moment of failure of the water storage system, the problem is formulated here in stochastic terms. This allows us to study the effects of varying the size of the breach and the possible shapes of the hydrograph entering the downstream site. Considering the characteristics of the discharge hydrograph at the dam site as random variables, inundation maps are produced for consecutive periods of time after the breach of the water storage structure. Finite difference equations expressing the mass and momentum balance are used to compute the probability and the statistical moments of the flood wave propagation. Linear systems analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are applied assuming either a uniform distribution or a lower and upper triangular probability distribution of the initial breach of the dam. An illustrative example showing the principal features of the proposed methodology is presented for the case of a two-dimensional hypothetical plain.
Consequences of the Failure of a Water Storage System
Abstract Evaluation and prediction of socio-economic consequences of an accidental failure of a water storage system must be based on hydrologic impact studies of the area downstream. Such studies are necessary for developing emergency plans and, based on these, for issuing flood warnings sufficiently early that the population downstream can be evacuated and damage to industrial and agricultural properties can be reduced. In view of the inaccuracy involved in determining the flood hydrograph for the moment of failure of the water storage system, the problem is formulated here in stochastic terms. This allows us to study the effects of varying the size of the breach and the possible shapes of the hydrograph entering the downstream site. Considering the characteristics of the discharge hydrograph at the dam site as random variables, inundation maps are produced for consecutive periods of time after the breach of the water storage structure. Finite difference equations expressing the mass and momentum balance are used to compute the probability and the statistical moments of the flood wave propagation. Linear systems analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are applied assuming either a uniform distribution or a lower and upper triangular probability distribution of the initial breach of the dam. An illustrative example showing the principal features of the proposed methodology is presented for the case of a two-dimensional hypothetical plain.
Consequences of the Failure of a Water Storage System
Ganoulis, Jacques (Autor:in)
01.01.1987
28 pages
Aufsatz/Kapitel (Buch)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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