Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Risk Assessment of Construction Project Scheduling
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0214-5081
To perform a successful construction project, accuracy in managing project risks has to be fulfilled by project parties. Regarding time-related risk, failure to estimate project construction duration is one of the common problems that can affect the entire project performance during the execution. To avoid the impact of these risks, a scheduling method using probabilistic duration has been developed, namely Monte Carlo simulation. In this study, optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic duration of each task and task relationship information of a real case study were collected and were examined in several steps, (1) determining the number of iterations, (2) Monte Carlo simulation, (3) scheduling analysis, and (4) probabilistic of success analysis. Based on the calculation, the success probabilities of as-planned, optimistic, most likely, pessimistic, and simulated durations are 0.479%, 0.054%, 2.108%, 57.912%, and 52.575% respectively. By only have 0.479% of success probability, the as-planned duration is unsuited to be submitted as project completion duration in the contract. Furthermore, to avoid risk in scheduling, the simulation suggests the project parties to allocate at least 332 days of project duration which has a 100% of success probability.
Risk Assessment of Construction Project Scheduling
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0214-5081
To perform a successful construction project, accuracy in managing project risks has to be fulfilled by project parties. Regarding time-related risk, failure to estimate project construction duration is one of the common problems that can affect the entire project performance during the execution. To avoid the impact of these risks, a scheduling method using probabilistic duration has been developed, namely Monte Carlo simulation. In this study, optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic duration of each task and task relationship information of a real case study were collected and were examined in several steps, (1) determining the number of iterations, (2) Monte Carlo simulation, (3) scheduling analysis, and (4) probabilistic of success analysis. Based on the calculation, the success probabilities of as-planned, optimistic, most likely, pessimistic, and simulated durations are 0.479%, 0.054%, 2.108%, 57.912%, and 52.575% respectively. By only have 0.479% of success probability, the as-planned duration is unsuited to be submitted as project completion duration in the contract. Furthermore, to avoid risk in scheduling, the simulation suggests the project parties to allocate at least 332 days of project duration which has a 100% of success probability.
Risk Assessment of Construction Project Scheduling
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0214-5081
To perform a successful construction project, accuracy in managing project risks has to be fulfilled by project parties. Regarding time-related risk, failure to estimate project construction duration is one of the common problems that can affect the entire project performance during the execution. To avoid the impact of these risks, a scheduling method using probabilistic duration has been developed, namely Monte Carlo simulation. In this study, optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic duration of each task and task relationship information of a real case study were collected and were examined in several steps, (1) determining the number of iterations, (2) Monte Carlo simulation, (3) scheduling analysis, and (4) probabilistic of success analysis. Based on the calculation, the success probabilities of as-planned, optimistic, most likely, pessimistic, and simulated durations are 0.479%, 0.054%, 2.108%, 57.912%, and 52.575% respectively. By only have 0.479% of success probability, the as-planned duration is unsuited to be submitted as project completion duration in the contract. Furthermore, to avoid risk in scheduling, the simulation suggests the project parties to allocate at least 332 days of project duration which has a 100% of success probability.
Risk Assessment of Construction Project Scheduling
Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Kristiawan, Stefanus Adi (Herausgeber:in) / Gan, Buntara S. (Herausgeber:in) / Shahin, Mohamed (Herausgeber:in) / Sharma, Akanshu (Herausgeber:in) / Kamandang, Zetta Rasullia (Autor:in)
International Conference on Rehabilitation and Maintenance in Civil Engineering ; 2021 ; Surakarta, Indonesia
19.07.2022
10 pages
Aufsatz/Kapitel (Buch)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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