Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Bayesian Revision of Probability Estimates
Abstract In this chapter we introduce Bayesian methods for updating model parameters based on new project-specific data. We provide formal introduction of Bayes theorem to update parameters of probability distributions used in project risk analysis. We discuss examples of updating the probability of arrival of machine breakdown and new change orders using Bayes theorem.
Bayesian Revision of Probability Estimates
Abstract In this chapter we introduce Bayesian methods for updating model parameters based on new project-specific data. We provide formal introduction of Bayes theorem to update parameters of probability distributions used in project risk analysis. We discuss examples of updating the probability of arrival of machine breakdown and new change orders using Bayes theorem.
Bayesian Revision of Probability Estimates
Damnjanovic, Ivan (Autor:in) / Reinschmidt, Kenneth (Autor:in)
24.05.2019
27 pages
Aufsatz/Kapitel (Buch)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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