Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2038-1045
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6720-409X
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-804X
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5484-4442
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7197-7933
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4483-0332
In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.
EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2038-1045
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6720-409X
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-804X
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5484-4442
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7197-7933
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4483-0332
In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.
EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2038-1045
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6720-409X
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-804X
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5484-4442
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7197-7933
https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4483-0332
In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.
EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings
Sustain Sci
Sugiyama, Masahiro (Autor:in) / Fujimori, Shinichiro (Autor:in) / Wada, Kenichi (Autor:in) / Oshiro, Ken (Autor:in) / Kato, Etsushi (Autor:in) / Komiyama, Ryoichi (Autor:in) / Silva Herran, Diego (Autor:in) / Matsuo, Yuhji (Autor:in) / Shiraki, Hiroto (Autor:in) / Ju, Yiyi (Autor:in)
Sustainability Science ; 16 ; 355-374
01.03.2021
20 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Climate change mitigation , Integrated assessment , Long-term strategy , National climate policy , Uncertainty , Carbon neutrality , Net-zero emissions Environment , Environmental Management , Climate Change Management and Policy , Environmental Economics , Landscape Ecology , Sustainable Development , Public Health , Earth and Environmental Science
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