Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
The Prebound Effect: Discrepancies Between Measured and Calculated Consumption
Estimates of heating fuel saving potential in German homes are generally based on a calculated consumption figure. The methodology for working this out is set down by the German Institute of Standards. But how close is this figure to dwellings’ actual heating energy consumption, and how does this affect the real energy savings potential through thermal retrofits? This chapter examines existing data on 3,400 representative German homes, their calculated energy rating plotted against their actual measured consumption. The results indicate that occupants consume, on average, 30% less heating energy than the calculated rating. This phenomenon, which we call the ‘prebound’ effect, increases with the calculated rating. The opposite phenomenon, the rebound effect, tends to occur for low-energy dwellings, where occupants consume more than the rating. A similar phenomenon has been recognized in recent Dutch, Belgian, French, and UK studies, suggesting policy implications in two directions. First, using a dwelling’s energy rating to predict fuel and CO2 savings through retrofits tends to overestimate savings, underestimate payback time, and possibly discourage cost-effective, incremental improvements. Second, the potential fuel and CO2 savings through nontechnical measures like occupant behavior may well be far larger than is generally assumed in policies, so policymakers need a better understanding of what drives or inhibits occupants’ decisions.
The Prebound Effect: Discrepancies Between Measured and Calculated Consumption
Estimates of heating fuel saving potential in German homes are generally based on a calculated consumption figure. The methodology for working this out is set down by the German Institute of Standards. But how close is this figure to dwellings’ actual heating energy consumption, and how does this affect the real energy savings potential through thermal retrofits? This chapter examines existing data on 3,400 representative German homes, their calculated energy rating plotted against their actual measured consumption. The results indicate that occupants consume, on average, 30% less heating energy than the calculated rating. This phenomenon, which we call the ‘prebound’ effect, increases with the calculated rating. The opposite phenomenon, the rebound effect, tends to occur for low-energy dwellings, where occupants consume more than the rating. A similar phenomenon has been recognized in recent Dutch, Belgian, French, and UK studies, suggesting policy implications in two directions. First, using a dwelling’s energy rating to predict fuel and CO2 savings through retrofits tends to overestimate savings, underestimate payback time, and possibly discourage cost-effective, incremental improvements. Second, the potential fuel and CO2 savings through nontechnical measures like occupant behavior may well be far larger than is generally assumed in policies, so policymakers need a better understanding of what drives or inhibits occupants’ decisions.
The Prebound Effect: Discrepancies Between Measured and Calculated Consumption
Green Energy,Technology
Galvin, Ray (Autor:in) / Sunikka-Blank, Minna (Autor:in)
26.07.2013
18 pages
Aufsatz/Kapitel (Buch)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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