Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Prediction of a Multi-hazard Chain by an Integrated Numerical Simulation Approach: The Baige Landslide Along the Jinsha River, China
Successive landslides during October and November 2018 in Baige village, eastern Tibet, China dammed the Jinsha River twice and the dam-breach had flooded many towns downstream, instigating a catastrophic disaster chain. In order to evaluate and understand the disaster chain effect that may be caused by the potentially unstable rock mass, we systematically studied the multi-hazard scenarios through an integrated numerical modelling approach. The model starts from the landslide failure probability to runout and river damming, and then to dam breach and dam-breach induced flood, hence predicting and visualizing an entire disaster chain. The parameters required for the modelling were calibrated using measured data from the two Baige landslides. Then, we predict the future cascading hazards based on seven scenarios according to all possible combinations of the potentially unstable rock mass failures. For each scenario, the landslide runouts, dam-breach process and flooding are numerically simulated with consideration of uncertainties of model input parameters. The maximum dam-breach flood extent, depth, velocity and peak arrival time at different places downstream are predicted. As a first attempt to simulate the whole process of a landslide induced multi-hazard chain, this study provides some insights and substantiates the necessity of landslide induced disaster chain modelling. The integrated approach proposed by this study can be applied for simulating similar types of landslide induced chains of hazards in other regions.
Prediction of a Multi-hazard Chain by an Integrated Numerical Simulation Approach: The Baige Landslide Along the Jinsha River, China
Successive landslides during October and November 2018 in Baige village, eastern Tibet, China dammed the Jinsha River twice and the dam-breach had flooded many towns downstream, instigating a catastrophic disaster chain. In order to evaluate and understand the disaster chain effect that may be caused by the potentially unstable rock mass, we systematically studied the multi-hazard scenarios through an integrated numerical modelling approach. The model starts from the landslide failure probability to runout and river damming, and then to dam breach and dam-breach induced flood, hence predicting and visualizing an entire disaster chain. The parameters required for the modelling were calibrated using measured data from the two Baige landslides. Then, we predict the future cascading hazards based on seven scenarios according to all possible combinations of the potentially unstable rock mass failures. For each scenario, the landslide runouts, dam-breach process and flooding are numerically simulated with consideration of uncertainties of model input parameters. The maximum dam-breach flood extent, depth, velocity and peak arrival time at different places downstream are predicted. As a first attempt to simulate the whole process of a landslide induced multi-hazard chain, this study provides some insights and substantiates the necessity of landslide induced disaster chain modelling. The integrated approach proposed by this study can be applied for simulating similar types of landslide induced chains of hazards in other regions.
Prediction of a Multi-hazard Chain by an Integrated Numerical Simulation Approach: The Baige Landslide Along the Jinsha River, China
Springer Ser.Geomech.,Geoengineer.
Zhang, Jian-Min (Herausgeber:in) / Zhang, Limin (Herausgeber:in) / Wang, Rui (Herausgeber:in) / Yang, Fan (Autor:in) / Feng, Zetao (Autor:in) / Liu, Maomao (Autor:in) / Fan, Xuanmei (Autor:in)
The International Conference on Embankment Dams ; 2020 ; Beijing, China
21.04.2020
9 pages
Aufsatz/Kapitel (Buch)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Initiation mechanism of the Baige landslide on the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, China
| Springer Verlag | 2020
Breaching and Flood Routing Simulation of the 2018 Two Baige Landslide Dams in Jinsha River
| Springer Verlag | 2020