Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Probability, exchangeability and extremes: with discussion of iceberg loading
The basic concepts of probability and utility, as well as their interrelationship, are reviewed. The duality embodied in the definitions of these quantities is emphasized. The assumptions of exchangeability as an alternative to independence, in assessing the implications of data sets and in problems of inference, is shown to offer the opportunity for considerable improvement in statistical analysis. Exchangeability implies that the order of a sequence of random events or quantities is not of significance. The use of a basic urn model in formulating problems involving exchangeability is demonstrated. The extension of the analysis to continuous random quantities as well as to problems of extremes is summarized. An example of the analysis of arrival of icebergs at discrete points in time at the location of an offshore structure is included and it is shown that the results include the uncertainty resulting from short data bases. The added risk associated with this uncertainty is acknowledged implicitly in the methodology.
Probability, exchangeability and extremes: with discussion of iceberg loading
The basic concepts of probability and utility, as well as their interrelationship, are reviewed. The duality embodied in the definitions of these quantities is emphasized. The assumptions of exchangeability as an alternative to independence, in assessing the implications of data sets and in problems of inference, is shown to offer the opportunity for considerable improvement in statistical analysis. Exchangeability implies that the order of a sequence of random events or quantities is not of significance. The use of a basic urn model in formulating problems involving exchangeability is demonstrated. The extension of the analysis to continuous random quantities as well as to problems of extremes is summarized. An example of the analysis of arrival of icebergs at discrete points in time at the location of an offshore structure is included and it is shown that the results include the uncertainty resulting from short data bases. The added risk associated with this uncertainty is acknowledged implicitly in the methodology.
Probability, exchangeability and extremes: with discussion of iceberg loading
Jordaan, Ian J. Adjunct Professor (Autor:in) / Maes, Marc A. (Autor:in)
Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems ; 1 ; 234-241
01.09.1984
8 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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