Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Future changes in extreme storm surges based on mega-ensemble projection using 60-km resolution atmospheric global circulation model
This study examines long-term ensemble projections for historical and future climate conditions over 5,000 years using an atmospheric global circulation model. The future climate condition is assumed as a constant +4K in the global mean temperature from before the Industrial Revolution (c.a. 1850), and the historical climate condition is perturbed by observed sea surface temperature (SST) error. A set of ensemble experiments assesses the impact of low probability phenomena, such as tropical cyclones and storm surge in comparison with conventional time-slice experiments. Future changes in storm surge will be severe at 15–35°N in the northern hemisphere, especially around the East Asia region. In addition, Future changes in regional storm surges targeting Tokyo and Osaka Bays project 0.3–0.45 m increase of storm surge height with a 100-year return period.
Future changes in extreme storm surges based on mega-ensemble projection using 60-km resolution atmospheric global circulation model
This study examines long-term ensemble projections for historical and future climate conditions over 5,000 years using an atmospheric global circulation model. The future climate condition is assumed as a constant +4K in the global mean temperature from before the Industrial Revolution (c.a. 1850), and the historical climate condition is perturbed by observed sea surface temperature (SST) error. A set of ensemble experiments assesses the impact of low probability phenomena, such as tropical cyclones and storm surge in comparison with conventional time-slice experiments. Future changes in storm surge will be severe at 15–35°N in the northern hemisphere, especially around the East Asia region. In addition, Future changes in regional storm surges targeting Tokyo and Osaka Bays project 0.3–0.45 m increase of storm surge height with a 100-year return period.
Future changes in extreme storm surges based on mega-ensemble projection using 60-km resolution atmospheric global circulation model
Mori, Nobuhito (Autor:in) / Shimura, Tomoya (Autor:in) / Yoshida, Kohei (Autor:in) / Mizuta, Ryo (Autor:in) / Okada, Yasuko (Autor:in) / Fujita, Mikiko (Autor:in) / Khujanazarov, Temur (Autor:in) / Nakakita, Eiichi (Autor:in)
Coastal Engineering Journal ; 61 ; 295-307
03.07.2019
13 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Ensemble Forecasting of Storm Surges
| Online Contents | 2009
Extreme North Sea storm surges and their consequences
| HENRY – Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau (BAW) | 2020
Modeling of Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain)
| DOAJ | 2020
ESTIMATION OF EXTREME STORM SURGES USING A SPATIAL LINKAGE ASSUMPTION
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2007