Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Reservoir operations under uncertainty with moving-horizon approach and ensemble forecast optimization
Inflow forecasts are a basic pre-requisite to support decisions for anticipating reservoir operations. The fact that hydrological forecasts are uncertain, noting that reservoirs often fulfill multiple purposes, bears the risk of non-ideal reservoir operation. Optimization techniques can help to identify the best operational scheme under given inflow. To address the forecast uncertainty, operators can repeat optimization (moving horizon approach) and optimize for inflow forecast ensembles. This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of how the different methods work, how to interpret the results and what the effect of user choices on the optimization results is. The moving-horizon approach and three ensemble optimization methods were applied on a hydropower reservoir in Norway under flood conditions. The functional principle of each method is explained, and advantages and drawbacks of the different methods are discussed with the help of performance indicators.
Reservoir operations under uncertainty with moving-horizon approach and ensemble forecast optimization
Inflow forecasts are a basic pre-requisite to support decisions for anticipating reservoir operations. The fact that hydrological forecasts are uncertain, noting that reservoirs often fulfill multiple purposes, bears the risk of non-ideal reservoir operation. Optimization techniques can help to identify the best operational scheme under given inflow. To address the forecast uncertainty, operators can repeat optimization (moving horizon approach) and optimize for inflow forecast ensembles. This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of how the different methods work, how to interpret the results and what the effect of user choices on the optimization results is. The moving-horizon approach and three ensemble optimization methods were applied on a hydropower reservoir in Norway under flood conditions. The functional principle of each method is explained, and advantages and drawbacks of the different methods are discussed with the help of performance indicators.
Reservoir operations under uncertainty with moving-horizon approach and ensemble forecast optimization
Becker, Bernhard (Autor:in) / Kim, Jiyoung (Autor:in) / Pummer, Elena (Autor:in)
Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research ; 12 ; 265-276
02.07.2024
12 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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