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Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
EVALUATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE WITH UNCERTAIN DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS
Formulations are presented for estimating probability of failure considering uncertainty of distribution parameters in time invariant and time variant reliability analyses. Based on the formulations the probability of failure can be calculated by recursively using the first order reliability method. Also, a more efficient approximate analysis procedure by using the point estimate method to estimate the probability of failure is given. In this analysis procedure, the point estimate method is used to discretize the uncertain distribution parameters in the time invariant reliability analysis, and to discretize the time-independent random variables and uncertain distribution parameters in the time variant reliability analysis. The probability of failure is then obtained by weighting the probability of failure conditioned at each of discrete points. The conditional probability of failure can be calculated by using first order reliability method, second order reliability method or any other convenient methods. The use of point estimate method to treat uncertain distribution parameters in calculating probability of failure is less computer time consuming than the one of recursively using FORM. Illustrative numerical examples of calculating probability of failure are presented.
EVALUATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE WITH UNCERTAIN DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS
Formulations are presented for estimating probability of failure considering uncertainty of distribution parameters in time invariant and time variant reliability analyses. Based on the formulations the probability of failure can be calculated by recursively using the first order reliability method. Also, a more efficient approximate analysis procedure by using the point estimate method to estimate the probability of failure is given. In this analysis procedure, the point estimate method is used to discretize the uncertain distribution parameters in the time invariant reliability analysis, and to discretize the time-independent random variables and uncertain distribution parameters in the time variant reliability analysis. The probability of failure is then obtained by weighting the probability of failure conditioned at each of discrete points. The conditional probability of failure can be calculated by using first order reliability method, second order reliability method or any other convenient methods. The use of point estimate method to treat uncertain distribution parameters in calculating probability of failure is less computer time consuming than the one of recursively using FORM. Illustrative numerical examples of calculating probability of failure are presented.
EVALUATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE WITH UNCERTAIN DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS
Hong, Han Ping (Autor:in)
Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems ; 13 ; 157-168
01.04.1996
12 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Evaluation of the probability of failure with uncertain distribution parameters
| British Library Online Contents | 1996
Evaluation of the probability of failure with uncertain distribution parameters
| Online Contents | 1996
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2001