Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Assessment in Construction
Abstract: Monte Carlo simulation has been used extensively for addressing probabilistic uncertainty in range estimating for construction projects. However, subjective and linguistically expressed information results in added non‐probabilistic uncertainty in construction management. Fuzzy logic has been used successfully for representing such uncertainties in construction projects. In practice, an approach that can handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties in a risk assessment model is necessary. This article discusses the deficiencies of the available methods and proposes a Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation (FMCS) framework for risk analysis of construction projects. In this framework, we construct a fuzzy cumulative distribution function as a novel way to represent uncertainty. To verify the feasibility of the FMCS framework and demonstrate its main features, the authors have developed a special purpose simulation template for cost range estimating. This template is employed to estimate the cost of a highway overpass project.
Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Assessment in Construction
Abstract: Monte Carlo simulation has been used extensively for addressing probabilistic uncertainty in range estimating for construction projects. However, subjective and linguistically expressed information results in added non‐probabilistic uncertainty in construction management. Fuzzy logic has been used successfully for representing such uncertainties in construction projects. In practice, an approach that can handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties in a risk assessment model is necessary. This article discusses the deficiencies of the available methods and proposes a Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation (FMCS) framework for risk analysis of construction projects. In this framework, we construct a fuzzy cumulative distribution function as a novel way to represent uncertainty. To verify the feasibility of the FMCS framework and demonstrate its main features, the authors have developed a special purpose simulation template for cost range estimating. This template is employed to estimate the cost of a highway overpass project.
Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Assessment in Construction
Sadeghi, N. (Autor:in) / Fayek, A. R. (Autor:in) / Pedrycz, W. (Autor:in)
Computer‐Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering ; 25 ; 238-252
01.05.2010
15 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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