A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics : Going Under Water?
How will climate risk beliefs affect coastal housing market dynamics? This paper provides both theoretical and empirical evidence: First, we build a dynamic housing market model with heterogeneity in home types, consumer preferences, and flood risk beliefs. The model incorporates a Bayesian learning mechanism allowing agents to update their beliefs depending on whether flood events occur. Second, to quantify these elements, we implement a door-to-door survey campaign in Rhode Island. The results confirm significant heterogeneity in flood risk beliefs, and that selection into coastal homes is driven by both lower risk perceptions and higher coastal amenity values. Third, we calibrate the model to simulate coastal home price trajectories given a future flood risk increase and policy reform across different belief scenarios. Accounting for heterogeneity increases the projected home price declines due to sea level rise by a factor of four, and increases market volatility by an order of magnitude. Studies assuming homogeneous rational expectations may thus substantially underestimate the home price implications of future climate risks. We conclude by highlighting potential implications for welfare and flood policy
Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics : Going Under Water?
How will climate risk beliefs affect coastal housing market dynamics? This paper provides both theoretical and empirical evidence: First, we build a dynamic housing market model with heterogeneity in home types, consumer preferences, and flood risk beliefs. The model incorporates a Bayesian learning mechanism allowing agents to update their beliefs depending on whether flood events occur. Second, to quantify these elements, we implement a door-to-door survey campaign in Rhode Island. The results confirm significant heterogeneity in flood risk beliefs, and that selection into coastal homes is driven by both lower risk perceptions and higher coastal amenity values. Third, we calibrate the model to simulate coastal home price trajectories given a future flood risk increase and policy reform across different belief scenarios. Accounting for heterogeneity increases the projected home price declines due to sea level rise by a factor of four, and increases market volatility by an order of magnitude. Studies assuming homogeneous rational expectations may thus substantially underestimate the home price implications of future climate risks. We conclude by highlighting potential implications for welfare and flood policy
Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics : Going Under Water?
NBER working paper series ; no. w23854
2017
1 Online-Ressource
Campusweiter Zugriff (Universität Hannover) - Vervielfältigungen (z.B. Kopien, Downloads) sind nur von einzelnen Kapiteln oder Seiten und nur zum eigenen wissenschaftlichen Gebrauch erlaubt. Keine Weitergabe an Dritte. Kein systematisches Downloaden durch Robots.
Book
Electronic Resource
English
| British Library Online Contents | 1998
| Online Contents | 1998
Introduction – coastal flood risk
| Online Contents | 2009
Introduction - coastal flood risk
| British Library Online Contents | 2009