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Calibration Models Reveal Stability Concerns at Marshall Lake Dam
A recent review of survey data for Marshall Lake Dam by the Colorado State Engineer’s Office (SEO) revealed progressive movement resembling a rotational slope failure. This revelation prompted a detailed historical review and a potential failure modes analysis (PFMA) of the dam following Colorado’s recently developed comprehensive dam safety evaluation (CDSE) process. Application of the CDSE process to Marshall Lake Dam revealed a long history of dam safety concerns and prompted a slope stability analysis of the existing dam. Unfortunately, very little reliable geotechnical data was available. Using known conditions from two observed slope failures at this dam, a calibration model was developed to evaluate the accuracy of the available soil data. The results suggested that design strength parameters used in past analyses had been overestimated and that the calculated slope stability factor of safety using adjusted soil strength values was slightly above equilibrium. The model was then used to estimate the safe reservoir storage level until a thorough geotechnical investigation and analysis could be conducted. This paper will briefly present the dam safety concerns that prompted the slope stability analysis and will focus on the slope stability calibration model development.
Calibration Models Reveal Stability Concerns at Marshall Lake Dam
A recent review of survey data for Marshall Lake Dam by the Colorado State Engineer’s Office (SEO) revealed progressive movement resembling a rotational slope failure. This revelation prompted a detailed historical review and a potential failure modes analysis (PFMA) of the dam following Colorado’s recently developed comprehensive dam safety evaluation (CDSE) process. Application of the CDSE process to Marshall Lake Dam revealed a long history of dam safety concerns and prompted a slope stability analysis of the existing dam. Unfortunately, very little reliable geotechnical data was available. Using known conditions from two observed slope failures at this dam, a calibration model was developed to evaluate the accuracy of the available soil data. The results suggested that design strength parameters used in past analyses had been overestimated and that the calculated slope stability factor of safety using adjusted soil strength values was slightly above equilibrium. The model was then used to estimate the safe reservoir storage level until a thorough geotechnical investigation and analysis could be conducted. This paper will briefly present the dam safety concerns that prompted the slope stability analysis and will focus on the slope stability calibration model development.
Calibration Models Reveal Stability Concerns at Marshall Lake Dam
Schoolmeesters, Ryan (author)
Rocky Mountain Geo-Conference 2018 ; 2018 ; Golden, Colorado
Rocky Mountain Geo-Conference 2018 ; 88-102
2018-11-01
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
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