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Predicting Time-to-Failure in Slopes from Precursory Displacements: A Centrifuge Experiment
Predicting the time-to-failure of slow-moving landslides based on precursory displacements is an appealing concept that could significantly improve our ability to evaluate and manage landslide risk. In this paper, we explore this concept by examining data from a well-documented failure of a submerged, saturated clay slope that occurred during a controlled geotechnical centrifuge experiment. We found that application of a simple linear inverse velocity relationship to the initial portion of the data set produced conservative but nevertheless inaccurate predictions of time-to-failure. Repeating this exercise with data collected closer to failure provided significantly improved the prediction, but at the cost of reduced warning time. A related non-linear model produced an excellent fit over the full time range of observed displacements, but required curve fitting parameters drawn from empirical observations, thus limiting its practical application for predicting the time-to-failure. Still, both models provided a very good basis for understanding and interpreting displacement-time monitoring data, and as landslides progress towards failure, we found that these models are capable of accurately predicting time-to-failure.
Predicting Time-to-Failure in Slopes from Precursory Displacements: A Centrifuge Experiment
Predicting the time-to-failure of slow-moving landslides based on precursory displacements is an appealing concept that could significantly improve our ability to evaluate and manage landslide risk. In this paper, we explore this concept by examining data from a well-documented failure of a submerged, saturated clay slope that occurred during a controlled geotechnical centrifuge experiment. We found that application of a simple linear inverse velocity relationship to the initial portion of the data set produced conservative but nevertheless inaccurate predictions of time-to-failure. Repeating this exercise with data collected closer to failure provided significantly improved the prediction, but at the cost of reduced warning time. A related non-linear model produced an excellent fit over the full time range of observed displacements, but required curve fitting parameters drawn from empirical observations, thus limiting its practical application for predicting the time-to-failure. Still, both models provided a very good basis for understanding and interpreting displacement-time monitoring data, and as landslides progress towards failure, we found that these models are capable of accurately predicting time-to-failure.
Predicting Time-to-Failure in Slopes from Precursory Displacements: A Centrifuge Experiment
Wartman, Joseph (author) / Malasavage, Nicholas E. (author)
Geo-Congress 2013 ; 2013 ; San Diego, California, United States
Geo-Congress 2013 ; 741-749
2013-02-25
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
Predicting Time-to-Failure in Slopes from Precursory Displacements: A Centrifuge Experiment
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