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Redefining Terminology of Flood Exceedance Probabilities by Basic Counting

Brodie, Ian

By convention, design discharge estimates are often expressed in terms of annual exceedance probability (AEP) or average recurrence interval (ARI). This paper describes the limitations of using AEP and ARI to reliably convey the expected incidence of flood magnitudes to decision makers and the public. An alternative expression—exceedance events per 1,000 years ( $EE / 1,000 years$ )—is proposed, which offers a less ambiguous definition of design discharge frequency. A case is argued for the adoption of $EE / 1,000 years$ based on several perceived advantages to AEP and ARI, including (1) by definition, it is a measure of number of flood exceedances over a timespan but can also communicate shifts in flood frequency over time, (2) the results of analysis using peak-over-threshold and annual maximum series can be both presented on the same $EE / 1,000 year$ chart, and (3) $EE / 1,000 years$ as a probability-based expression can be easily converted to alternatives used in floodplain risk analysis.

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Redefining Terminology of Flood Exceedance Probabilities by Basic Counting

Brodie, Ian

By convention, design discharge estimates are often expressed in terms of annual exceedance probability (AEP) or average recurrence interval (ARI). This paper describes the limitations of using AEP and ARI to reliably convey the expected incidence of flood magnitudes to decision makers and the public. An alternative expression—exceedance events per 1,000 years ( $EE / 1,000 years$ )—is proposed, which offers a less ambiguous definition of design discharge frequency. A case is argued for the adoption of $EE / 1,000 years$ based on several perceived advantages to AEP and ARI, including (1) by definition, it is a measure of number of flood exceedances over a timespan but can also communicate shifts in flood frequency over time, (2) the results of analysis using peak-over-threshold and annual maximum series can be both presented on the same $EE / 1,000 year$ chart, and (3) $EE / 1,000 years$ as a probability-based expression can be easily converted to alternatives used in floodplain risk analysis.

Redefining Terminology of Flood Exceedance Probabilities by Basic Counting

Brodie, Ian

By convention, design discharge estimates are often expressed in terms of annual exceedance probability (AEP) or average recurrence interval (ARI). This paper describes the limitations of using AEP and ARI to reliably convey the expected incidence of flood magnitudes to decision makers and the public. An alternative expression—exceedance events per 1,000 years ( $EE / 1,000 years$ )—is proposed, which offers a less ambiguous definition of design discharge frequency. A case is argued for the adoption of $EE / 1,000 years$ based on several perceived advantages to AEP and ARI, including (1) by definition, it is a measure of number of flood exceedances over a timespan but can also communicate shifts in flood frequency over time, (2) the results of analysis using peak-over-threshold and annual maximum series can be both presented on the same $EE / 1,000 year$ chart, and (3) $EE / 1,000 years$ as a probability-based expression can be easily converted to alternatives used in floodplain risk analysis.

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Title:

Redefining Terminology of Flood Exceedance Probabilities by Basic Counting

Contributors:

Brodie, Ian (author)

Published in:

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering ; 21

Publication date:

2016-06-08

ISSN:

1084-0699 , 1943-5584

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001420

Type of media:

Article (Journal)

Type of material:

Electronic Resource

Language:

Unknown

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