A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Risk Assessment of Levee Overtopping Breach Using a Logit Model
Breach due to overtopping is the most prevalent failure mode of levees; therefore, special consideration should be given to this mechanism when conducting levee risk assessments. The main objective of this study is to apply a recently developed logistic regression model, which estimates the probability of breach due to overtopping, to levee risk assessment. The model is first introduced, and then employed for risk assessment purposes by comparing probabilistic model estimates to the results of eight semi-quantitative risk assessments based on expert elicitation of subjective probability. The model is then validated by testing model accuracy using data from 11 new levee overtopping events. Findings suggest that the proposed logit model can support risk assessment by offering a viable alternative for estimating the system response probability of levees when overtopped.
Risk Assessment of Levee Overtopping Breach Using a Logit Model
Breach due to overtopping is the most prevalent failure mode of levees; therefore, special consideration should be given to this mechanism when conducting levee risk assessments. The main objective of this study is to apply a recently developed logistic regression model, which estimates the probability of breach due to overtopping, to levee risk assessment. The model is first introduced, and then employed for risk assessment purposes by comparing probabilistic model estimates to the results of eight semi-quantitative risk assessments based on expert elicitation of subjective probability. The model is then validated by testing model accuracy using data from 11 new levee overtopping events. Findings suggest that the proposed logit model can support risk assessment by offering a viable alternative for estimating the system response probability of levees when overtopped.
Risk Assessment of Levee Overtopping Breach Using a Logit Model
Flynn, Stefan (author) / Vahedifard, Farshid (author)
Geo-Congress 2022 ; 2022 ; Charlotte, North Carolina
Geo-Congress 2022 ; 385-395
2022-03-17
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
Risk Assessment of Levee Overtopping Breach Using a Logit Model
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