A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Bayesian Calibration of Slope Failure Probability
A limitation of reliability approach to slope safety has been that reliability evaluation yields only notional probability of failure. It would be desirable if the assessed notional probability can be indeed calibrated to the real probability of failure. In this way, landslide risk could be managed with confidence and choices among alternative options could be made more defensible. This paper proposes a calibration procedure based on the Bayesian approach. It will first integrate the analytically assessed failure probabilities of a large set of soil slopes in Hong Kong with the corresponding observed performances of these soil slopes. Both failed and unfailed slopes were used in the calibration process. Through this exercise, the reliability assessed for a given slope in Hong Kong with similar soil material to those used in the calibration study can be calibrated to a realistic reliability measure.
Bayesian Calibration of Slope Failure Probability
A limitation of reliability approach to slope safety has been that reliability evaluation yields only notional probability of failure. It would be desirable if the assessed notional probability can be indeed calibrated to the real probability of failure. In this way, landslide risk could be managed with confidence and choices among alternative options could be made more defensible. This paper proposes a calibration procedure based on the Bayesian approach. It will first integrate the analytically assessed failure probabilities of a large set of soil slopes in Hong Kong with the corresponding observed performances of these soil slopes. Both failed and unfailed slopes were used in the calibration process. Through this exercise, the reliability assessed for a given slope in Hong Kong with similar soil material to those used in the calibration study can be calibrated to a realistic reliability measure.
Bayesian Calibration of Slope Failure Probability
Cheung, Raymond W. M. (author) / Tang, Wilson H. (author)
Geo-Denver 2000 ; 2000 ; Denver, Colorado, United States
Slope Stability 2000 ; 72-85
2000-07-24
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
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