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Probabilistic Modeling as a New Planning Approach to Stormwater Management
The processes taking place in urban drainage systems are stochastic and complex. To describe the mechanisms involved is consequently difficult and associated with uncertainties, especially if the receiving water is included. These uncertainties make modeling urban drainage systems and planning wet-weather water protection measures a demanding task. Since existing deterministic urban drainage models are unsuitable for dealing with these uncertainties, it would make sense for future planning procedures to be based on probabilistic rather than deterministic modeling. The following study aims to test the feasibility of probabilistic modeling for planning stormwater measures. This was done by applying a probabilistic model to a practical example, namely the drainage system of Russikon in Switzerland. The results show that this probabilistic approach can indeed be implemented for planning purposes. However, the extra dimension of the probabilistic modeling results (i.e. the probability) leads to an additional degree of freedom in decision-making. Planners must be instructed on how to handle these uncertainties and how to argue effectively with decision-makers.
Probabilistic Modeling as a New Planning Approach to Stormwater Management
The processes taking place in urban drainage systems are stochastic and complex. To describe the mechanisms involved is consequently difficult and associated with uncertainties, especially if the receiving water is included. These uncertainties make modeling urban drainage systems and planning wet-weather water protection measures a demanding task. Since existing deterministic urban drainage models are unsuitable for dealing with these uncertainties, it would make sense for future planning procedures to be based on probabilistic rather than deterministic modeling. The following study aims to test the feasibility of probabilistic modeling for planning stormwater measures. This was done by applying a probabilistic model to a practical example, namely the drainage system of Russikon in Switzerland. The results show that this probabilistic approach can indeed be implemented for planning purposes. However, the extra dimension of the probabilistic modeling results (i.e. the probability) leads to an additional degree of freedom in decision-making. Planners must be instructed on how to handle these uncertainties and how to argue effectively with decision-makers.
Probabilistic Modeling as a New Planning Approach to Stormwater Management
Kreikenbaum, Simon (author) / Krejci, Vladimir (author) / Rauch, Wolfgang (author) / Rossi, Luca (author)
Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage (9ICUD) ; 2002 ; Lloyd Center Doubletree Hotel, Portland, Oregon, United States
2002-09-05
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
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