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A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A comparative analysis of flood damage models: lessons learnt and future challenges
The estimation of flood losses implies the use of vulnerability/exposure models for flood damage and risk assessment (Meyer et al. 2013; Zischg et al. 2018; Wagenaar et al. 2018; Molinari et al. 2019). According to Gerl et al. (2016), in central Europe there are 28 models with 652 functions to assess flood losses, whereas almost half of the functions refer to residential buildings. The main differences among damage models are: (i) spatial scale, (ii) metric (i.e. absolute or relative loss), (iii) exposure assessment (i.e. whole building or affected floors, market values or reconstruction-replacement costs), (iv) number of input variables, (v) calibration/validation with observed losses. These differences pose the issue of model transferability to other urban or environmental contexts. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study is to test and compare damage models for residential buildings used or developed by each group, by applying them in a “blind exercise”, i.e. a common flood case study characterised by high availability of hazard and building data, with unknown information on observed losses in the implementation stage of the models. As the research groups use approaches representing many different types and characteristics of models (e.g. univariable – multivariable; absolute – relative; graduated – regression – machine learning), being calibrated based on empirical data stemming from different countries (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands), with different landscapes, the blind exercise provides an extensive comparison of models and their transferability. The analysis of the differences in the ensemble of model outcomes aims at pointing out common patterns or divergent behaviours between model outcomes and with respect to observed losses.
A comparative analysis of flood damage models: lessons learnt and future challenges
The estimation of flood losses implies the use of vulnerability/exposure models for flood damage and risk assessment (Meyer et al. 2013; Zischg et al. 2018; Wagenaar et al. 2018; Molinari et al. 2019). According to Gerl et al. (2016), in central Europe there are 28 models with 652 functions to assess flood losses, whereas almost half of the functions refer to residential buildings. The main differences among damage models are: (i) spatial scale, (ii) metric (i.e. absolute or relative loss), (iii) exposure assessment (i.e. whole building or affected floors, market values or reconstruction-replacement costs), (iv) number of input variables, (v) calibration/validation with observed losses. These differences pose the issue of model transferability to other urban or environmental contexts. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study is to test and compare damage models for residential buildings used or developed by each group, by applying them in a “blind exercise”, i.e. a common flood case study characterised by high availability of hazard and building data, with unknown information on observed losses in the implementation stage of the models. As the research groups use approaches representing many different types and characteristics of models (e.g. univariable – multivariable; absolute – relative; graduated – regression – machine learning), being calibrated based on empirical data stemming from different countries (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands), with different landscapes, the blind exercise provides an extensive comparison of models and their transferability. The analysis of the differences in the ensemble of model outcomes aims at pointing out common patterns or divergent behaviours between model outcomes and with respect to observed losses.
A comparative analysis of flood damage models: lessons learnt and future challenges
Arrighi, Chiara (author) / Ballio, Francesco (author) / Carisi, Francesca (author) / Castelli, Fabio (author) / Domeneghetti, Alessio (author) / Gallazzi, Alice (author) / Galliani, Marta (author) / Grelot, Frédéric (author) / Kellermann, Patric (author) / Kreibich, Heidi (author)
2020-01-01
Arrighi, Chiara; Ballio, Francesco; Carisi, Francesca; Castelli, Fabio; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Gallazzi, Alice; Galliani, Marta; Grelot, Frédéric; Kellermann, Patric; Kreibich, Heidi; Molinari, Daniela; Mohor, Guilherme S.; Mosimann, Markus; Natho, Stephanie; Richert, Claire; Schroeter, Kai; Scorzini, Anna Rita; Thieken, Annegret H.; Zischg, Andreas P. (2020). A comparative analysis of flood damage models: lessons learnt and future challenges. In: Floodrisk 2020 - 4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management (null-null). Online: Budapest University of Technology and Economics 10.3311/FloodRisk2020.9.15
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
DDC:
690
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